There are a lot of things that happened today that I did not expect in the least. It was just yesterday after the government reclaimed 4 ministries from TGV that Andry said that he was going to take his followers on a long march to Iavoloha. This is what everyone was worried about, we all feared that Andry was going to take his followers across another “red zone” and that there would be more violence.
But instead, Andry received a letter from the FFKM inviting him to talks with Marc Ravalomanana. And that was basically it from TGV, the crowd didn’t do anything but leave peacefully today which is great.
Following that, there was an announcement from the government that FFKM, Ravalomanana and TGV had agreed that there would be no further violence. There was also reports that TGV has accepted the prerequisites to negotiotiations:
- No further rallies at 13th May
- No misinformation on his radio or television network
Starting Monday, there will be “real” negotiations between TGV and Ravalomanana, finally, a good start to peace and no more nonsense (hopefully).
It makes you wonder though, what would cause TGV to back down on this march at the last minute? What would make him show his followers that he is backing down? Surely this cannot look good on him considering how worked up he got over the sudden loss of the ministries.
I think it is because he is running out of room to manoever, what would he have done if the march was unsuccessful? He must have a sense that his followers are getting tired of not making any progress, and whatever progress they do make is snatched away in the blink of an eye.
But what is in the negotiations for TGV? I have read on Twitter that there is going some power given to a new PM for transition? Not quite clear, but there obviously must be something there for everyone. Time will tell I guess.
Now that he has backed down and is going into negotiations, I don’t expect that he will return to his rallies and marches again unless something seriously breaks down. Let’s hope that life can finally get back to normal.