A return to rally?

Another Update – According to Sobika.com there are plans to gather tomorrow morning at 10am to go to Mahamasima to remove PDS Guy Rivo Randrianarisoa. So it looks like TGV is quick to get back to making trouble.


Update – It would appear that I spoke too soon, shortly after I had posted my prediction, the talks broke off. Here is a quote directly from France24.com:

“From now on, the people will have its say. We are going to step up our claims and return to May 13 square,” Rajoelina said, in reference to the square in the capital where the opposition has been holding its rallies.

So it would appear that even as early as tomorrow, you will see more rallies, demands and misinformation.

It also appears that the talks were in a deadlock for the same reason I mentioned in my original post. Here is a quote from an article from china.org.cn:

Rajoelina, a former mayor of the capital city, has insisted on the resignation of President Ravalomanana and his government while Ravalomanana, keeping in mind of the scheduled African Union Summit in the coming July, is eager to solve the domestic conflicts as early as possible.

President Ravalomanana reminded the opposition of the respect of the constitution as well as the legality of his presidency and government which came to power in 2002 after a national election at the end of 2001.

If  the resignation of the president continues to be a requirement for dialogue with TGV, then talks will never go anywhere. I don’t have to tell you how ludicrous I find the requirement from TGV. So, the odds are they could never move past this during the talks and wasted the potential for negotiations.

It is really too bad that this has happened as this is the best way to resolve the crisis peacefully. And since it appeared that neither side wanted to compromise it will probably take some time and perhaps some serious disruption before they will again return to the negotiating table. Get ready for round 2 of TGV disruptions. <Sigh>

Here is a good quote from a taxi driver in Tana (my thoughts exactly):

“If Rajoelina is talking about democracy then why doesn’t he wait for the next elections in 2011?” asked taxi driver Freddie Ranaitosoa.


There isn’t much to speak of in terms of news since the negotiations between Andry and Marc have been taking place, but there does seem to be a sense of dissatisfaction coming from Andry. The quote that best describes the state of the negotiations comes from a report on CNBC:

“The meeting today was unsatisfactory. After an hour’s discussion the president asked for a break. Looking at how things went today, it is hardly worth continuing,” Rajoelina told reporters at his home.

What does this mean exactly? I think it is a sign. Initially I didn’t think that Andry would have ever given up his ridiculous notion that Ravalomanana should “resign” before negotiations can start, but when they did start I thought… perhaps he HAD given the notion up. But from the last few days of negotiation I have been getting the sense that for Andry, the resignation is still a requirement for negotiations to continue. So that fact that he previously said that he is going to see how negotiations go today, and that he is still demanding a resignation (more or less) I don’t expect that negotiations will go on too much longer.

I was very hopeful that these negotiations were going to be more serious than any of the other previous attempts, but I am starting to get the feeling that these negotiations are not going to be any different. I think initially the negotiations were done to appease the churches request, but they ultimately ended up serving as a really good distraction for TGV followers. The talks allowed for the recent failure to capture the ministries to slip a bit from the minds of TGV followers and will allow for whatever break in negotiations that “may” occur in the near future, to be used as fuel to incite his followers.

Before the talks it almost seems as though Andry was backed into a corner, not having a well thought out response to the loss of the recently captured ministries. The fact that he wanted march to Iavoloha I think shows this, as he would gain nothing politically by going there other than introducing the possibility for more violence. So at this point I am fully expecting that talks will break down whenever it is most convenient for TGV to break them down. Once broken down, TGV will provide some grandious reason why this happened (surely one that will infuriate TGV followers) and then we will see renewed rallies at 13 May. He has even hinted at having a rally by end of week on sobika.com stating “suspension does not mean a ban”.

But this is just sort of a predictive entry for me, again, I haven’t seen anything concrete (between yesterday when I started this post and this morning), so let’s hope I am wrong and that there is not a break down in talks.  But the silence is doesn’t bode well and has me wondering. What do you think will happen?


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