In the early morning of March 6th, the government attempted to do something that I have been waiting for some time, arrest Andry Rajoelina. I am not sure how he managed to escape, but it is what happens after the escape I think that is going start to change the way that people look at this TGV movement.
Shortly after the failed attempt at arresting Andry Rajoelina, he called his own television station VIVA and broadcast to his followers that he needs their protection and commanded that they all come to his house. The unfortunate part to this is that Andry Rajoelina’s house either borders or at least is very close to a French school (Lycée Français de Tana). Somehow his call for protection transformed (by order or on it’s own) into a hostage situation where the supporters blocked the gate of the school and would not allow anyone to pass through. So from the early afternoon until the early evening the students could not move until the army came to disperse the supporters allowing all of the students to be transported to the personal residence of the french embassy in Ivandry where they were later picked up by their families. Of course, the next day VIVA was trying to find the silver lining to this hostage situation by trying to spin this into a band of followers keeping the students in the school for their own safety. But I think very few people are starting to buy what VIVA and Rajoelina are selling, and I think this will be something that will really start to eat away at the support base of Andry Rajoelina.
If that doesn’t eat away from the support base then certainly the effectiveness of the military action in Tana will. Ever since the May 13th square has been taken away from Andry Rajoelina’s movement appears to be falling apart. There have been very few announcements from them, and when there are announcements they either lead to no action or make no sense. For example, there was supposed to be a march on Saturday from May 13th square to a location wasn’t announced. The only thing that his followers knew was that they were supposed to dress in white and show up for the march, which did not happen. Or today in an interview, Monja Roindefo said “all America is watching” what does that even mean? I am in North America and I am watching, but I am fairly certain that most people in America would not sympathize with TGV especially in light of recent events. And how about his latest announcement where he tells his followers that he cannot show up to May 13th square anymore, but the struggle will continue. How does he expect anyone to follow him now?
It should be clear to almost anyone that since he has lost the May 13th square that he has been having problems organizing and communicating his people. He calls on his followers for protection, puts women and children at the front of protest lines. His followers have taken a school hostage. And now because he fears being arrested, instead of defying the government he is hiding. How can you tell your followers that you can’t show up to rally f0r your cause? Especially since some of his followers were sacrificing their livelyhoods and lives for him and he can’t come just because he is afraid of being arrested? If you ask me, this is how revolts are started. Andry Rajoelina is showing his true colours now and I hope that everyone in Madagascar can see them.