Raw deal

I just finished going through some of the updates for the day and found an article from TopMada indicating just how much power Ravalomanana and any other person that is part of this agreement will have. Of course, the information is coming from just one source, but at the same time, I would think that getting the information about the agreement would be very difficult so there could be some validity to this. Here are the details:

While representatives of the movement mouvance Ravalomanana and Ratsiraka have not reappeared on the table meeting of the International Contact Group and the charter proposed by the – has not yet been the subject of discussion, propose its HAT own charter. A charter that supports the existing transition, with some changes in the government and parliament. And the HAT will according to its charter the majority in all institutions. Andry Rajoelina remains President, Monja Roindefo remains Prime Minister, the number of ministers will be raised to 29, the 22 ministers for the HAT and the remaining 7 to distinguish between the movement Ravalomanana, Ratsiraka and Albert Zafy. The lower house will be replaced by a congress made up of 128 representatives of the HAT, 30 representatives from each of the three movements mentioned above and 7 seats for civil society. The Senate is replaced by members of the HAT (other than the government), a body that will consist of 44 members present with 10 former senators.The charter proposed by the HAT proposes the cancellation of all the facts and decisions of administrative and judicial for political affairs between 2002 and 2008 and thus give an amnesty to former President Ratsiraka and his supporters. As this deadline is not the year 2009, supporters of Ravalomanana imprisoned during the crisis, Ravalomanana and will not benefit from the amnesty if the charter is adopted.

If it turns out to be true, which I believe it to be, then we have mislead again into thinking that there would be some sort of valid and peaceful resolution to this problem. There is no doubt that if this information is true, then talks are as good as off and Andry Rajoelina’s hopes of legitimizing his government dashed.

It would also prove again to everyone how good the HAT is at misinforming everyone. We have been misinformed on the peace talks, hoping that there would be some peaceful resolution. We have also been misled in recent days on how is talks with Senagalese president Abdoulaye Wade had gone. He had come back to Madagascar of course touting that he had ‘personally explained’ his situation to Wade and that Wade had accepted the HAT as a legitimate government:

Rajoelina explained to Wade the situation prevailing in Madagascar, which was contradicted what had been reported on the media and that had been said by Ravalomanana.”Senegal has always been a friend and brother of Madagascar, it has always been there when Madagascar had problems like what happened in 2002,” Rajoelina said in Dakar.

This of course must have been information leaked out by the HAT from Tana some time after the meeting as it seems to have only been picked up by Xinhuanet. But now we are seeing growing reports that Abdoulaye Wade did not say anything close to what has been reported initially. Wade agrees with the AU and states that he should stick to whatever resolution is being pushed by the AU:

According to the document,”President Abdoulaye Wade told him he wanted a facilitator and not a judge and by definition could take sides in a conflict. He advised him to pursue his action in the process initiated by the international community to the establishment of the transitional charter which should lead to transparent elections, free and democratic.””The President Wade has especially recommended never to depart from the position of the African Union and the international community to express its desire for a happy ending the current crisis solely on the profile of the Malagasy people ‘ ‘, says the press release.

This is pretty far from being accepted I would say, and accepted or not, it did not justify the hijacking of a plane for his own reasons so that he could have this meeting whether it proved to be fruitful or not. There were a lot of angry people who had to waste an extra 8 hours just waiting for Andry Rajoelina to do his business, pretty self-righteous I would say:

The passengers arrived around 6:00 pm at Ivato airport to check-in to Paris and Marseille. The flight was supposed to take-off at 10:30 pm but Andry Rajoelina arrived at the airport and forced the Air Madagascar ground operator of to reroute the fight to Dakar.It took three hours for Dakar airport to give authorization. The flight took off about 1:00 AM (next day) in the morning and headed to Dakar with 200 passengers.

As the flight was originally expected to arrive in Marseille on Thursday morning at 10:00 AM, family and friends had to wait for more than 8 extra hours.

So it looks like we are once again back where we had started with no negociations or an end to the crisis in the near future. The only thing that seems to be picking up some steam is the legalist movement in Madagascar, with reports from TopMada that today will be a deciding day on things to come:

Saturday’s decision will certainly relate to the conduct to be followed for the remainder of the event legalists. A major decision that will severely after the speeches of President Ravalomanana and the withdrawal of its representatives at the table meeting with the International Contact Group.

It remains to be seen what is going to happen regarding Marc Ravalomanana’s return to Madagascar. But with all the recent events, it seems that this time there may be a possibility of him doing it. Especially considering the recent raid on the Ivato airport by the army when they had thought he was on a plane. The HAT are definitely scared and are increasingly getting stuck between a rock and a hard place. Hopefully this will lead to their end, but who knows.

It also appears that the big Saudi agreement could have just been lip service and was something manufactured by the HAT to ease tension on them about their finances:

The High Authority of transition (NDT), led by Andry Rajoelina, who took power in Madagascar in March 2009, gave a lot of sparkle to the visit of Saudi investors. This failed to silence the many questions about “real godsend.” Madagascar is suspended from the African Union, which were ultimately not held its next summit of Heads of State and Government. new regime is not recognized by any government. The signature of this Convention would be a great victory for the new regime.Enough for many people to handling, staged. The group is not well known. The representative of the International Monetary Fund on the island, Pierre van den Boogaerd, questioned about it, says: “Personally, I do not know.”

There was also surprised with a delegation of three persons only, traveling by scheduled flight from Kenya Airways, without bodyguard.

Maybe they are up to their misleading tricks again? Hopefully in the next couple of weeks we will see more of the truth coming to light and an end to the crisis.

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A return by force?

There has been a very interesting series of events in the last few days that may lead to some very interesting weeks ahead if true. I wrote yesterday about the paranoia of the HAT and perhaps the army as they had rushed the Ivato international airport looking for Marc Ravalomanana or anyone associated with him. As it turns out, what I had mentioned at the tail end of my post regarding forces waiting for Ravalomanana might not be as far fetched as I thought.

At some point yesterday had stated to his supporters that he will be coming back essentially by force with some sort of international body that is going to be cleaning up the corruption in Madagascar. Here is an exerpt from a MadaOnline article:

Marc Ravalomanana said in a statement issued on 28 May that the military “pacification” under the aegis of the international community are preparing to perform a mission to Madagascar. He called the military malgaches to “lay down their arms” when the “peacemakers” will perform their mission.

“The soldiers, gendarmes and police who continue to support Rajoelina Andry and his band will be prosecuted” hammered Marc Ravalomanana. The president in exile called on the victims of abuses of the team Rajoelina not to succumb to the temptation of mob justice when the law will be reinstated in the national territory.

Here is another from Mada24.info:

President Ravalomanana raised the possibility of intervention by international forces. “The soldiers, gendarmes and police to help further Andry Rajoelina and” his gang “(sic) will be considered when the international community will decide that the time has come to restore order and security on the territory of the Republic of Madagascar “he says.

“The soldiers, gendarmes and police peace-loving and who do their work will be required to surrender their weapons when the time comes to do so. Marc Ravalomanana to prevent those who refuse will be subject to heavy penalties. “What citizens victims of abuse do not hinder the actions of the peacemakers, they will help restore the rule of law, we must let them accomplish their mission, help them if need be! “He added.

So it would stand to reason that the HAT had some information on this well before it was announced. Why else would they send so many military to an airport just for Marc Ravalomanana and his associates? That was definitely a knee-jerk reaction to the possible risk of foriegn personnel and/or Marc Ravalomanana. But what is definitely worse than this knee-jerk reaction is to hijack a plane (essentially) and fly to a destination of his choice and force all the passengers of the plane to wait until his little political meeting is done.  That’s right, Andry Rajoelina used his authority to divert a plane to Senegal to meet with Abdoulaye Wade who  apparently recognizes the HAT of Madagascar, article from Xinhuanet:

The agreement was made between Senegalese President Abdoulaye Wade and Rajoelina, president of the Madagascan High Transitional Authority (HTA) who concluded a one-day visit to the Senegalese capital of Dakar on Friday.

During the talks between the two presidents on Thursday, Wade agreed with HTA position of being against the return of former Madagascan president Marc Ravalomanana to his home country, the communiqué said.

What agreement…. was this just a verbal agreement or something else? The only thing that seems to be agreed upon is that they are both against the return of Marc Ravalomanana to Madagascar. So the fact that this was a very imprompt to flight and meeting, it has to make you wonder just how worried the HAT is, and what kind of pressure they are under. It has to be bad since according to flight schedules, the Air Madagascar flight was expected in Paris on Thursday morning at 10:20am, which technically invalidates anything to company might say later regarding the delay:

A group of Caennais who had spent three weeks in Madagascar has experienced a hectic return to Paris. Wednesday evening, while the Boeing 767 of Air Madagascar was preparing to take off in the direction of France, the aircraft suddenly been requisitioned by the Malagasy authorities.

Andry Rajoelina, the new strong man of Madagascar, had decided to go to … Dakar, for a tour of seduction with President Wade. The visit was imminent, according to sources malgaches. Obviously, everyone was aware. Except Air Madagascar? The company, whose aircraft was expected in Paris, Thursday morning at 10 h 20, has preferred to forget radio silence and to prevent passengers they were going to do a check to West Africa. Confirmed by a staff member: “This flight was scheduled to pass through Dakar for three days. The problem is that passengers were not warned. “

So something is afoot here, especially since there has been increased military activity around the capital:

In recent days, military camps in the capital were visibly alert. Armored vehicles are stationed near the Ministry of the Armed Forces. It is a fact quite rare. Once the first false alarm on the return of Marc Ravalomanana, May 27, a hundred soldiers were deployed at the international airport Ivato. In vain.

So will the return of Marc Ravalomanana actually happen? I had written it off at the time simply because it did not make sense when there were negotiations occurring, and because of Ravalomanana’s outburst accusing France. But all of this panic must have a purpose, someone must know something and I suspect we will find out very soon what that something is. I just hope for the sake of everyone in Madagascar that it does not start some sort of civil war. Guaranteed I will be waiting and watching in anticipation… I will update the blog as soon as I see something.

Paranoid

Not much news flowing out regarding Madagascar since Ravalomanana’s finger pointing at France or the stalled negotiations between the group of ex-presidents. The only notable thing that happened was that the army was busy this morning storming the Ivato airport, checking passengers and their luggage for information on Marc Ravalomanana. They were also apparently searching for anyone that could be associated with the former president, for whatever reason. Very peculiar… is it the HAT that is paranoid about his return? Or is it the army? Very wierd. Why are they responding so quickly to a rumour? Is there something that he could do if he were there? Or are they just anxious to make an example of him and then lock him away for good?

Here is the just of the TopMada article:

“Heavily armed soldiers have been combing the end Ivato International Airport in Antananarivo in search of the exiled President of Madagascar Marc Ravalomanana. The alert was launched Wednesday after the disappearance of the list of passengers on a flight from Mauritius. Ravalomanana apparently fearing that might be tempted to return, two months after being ousted by the opposition with the support of the army, a hundred soldiers awaited the arrival of the aircraft at the airport Ivato and adjacent to the runway. The soldiers searched the passengers and their luggage in search of weapons and possible accomplices of Marc Ravalomanana. The excavations have yielded no results. “

Actually, the first place that I read about this was an IOL article. The article notes that the HAT has been increasingly jittery from the pressure from the international community regarding the policitical instability:

The administration of embattled interim president Andry Rajoelina is appearing increasingly jittery as pressure grows on the 34-year-old leader to end months of instability by holding inclusive elections.

With a jittery HAT and the imprompt to search of the airport, it has to make you wonder why they are so worried? There couldn’t really be anything to this could there? A reason why Rajoelina is so vehemently behind his decision not to sign any deal that would allow for the return of Marc Ravalomanana to Madagascar?

“The High Transitional Authority blocks the return of the former president, Marc Ravalomanana, to the country,” Rajoelina told reporters at the opening day of separate talks intended to heal deep divisions within the army.”We will not sign any agreement allowing for his return.”

The only thing I could come up with is that perhaps there is a section of the army, not with CAPSAT, that is waiting for the return of Ravalomanana to take action against their  corrupt counterparts…. But that is pretty far fetched, why would they wait if they could take action now? And even if they were waiting, why would anyone want to start a civil war?

Not sure, but thought the whole thing was worth mentioning because it does seem like a jumpy/reactive thing to do. There is definitely paranoia here.

Opening a can of worms

I can’t say that I expected Marc Ravalomanana to announce what he did on the radio yesterday, basically stating that France is behind the coup and that they are trying to enslave and recolonise the Malagasy:

“(The French) objective is to recolonise Madagascar and enslave the Malagasy people. Their goal is to provoke a tribal war,” Ravalomanana said from exile in South Africa.

“France does not want Madagascar to develop. It is only concerned with its own interests.”

or

“France is now lobbying within the Francophone countries over the world to recognize the putschist regime of Andry Rajoelina,” Ravalomanana said, in reference to the former Antananarivo mayor, “Frenchmen do not want the development of our country, they always want to colonize us, they want to monopolize our independence, our wealth, which is the reason why they helped these thugs and these putchists to take power,” a local website, madatimes.com, quoted Ravalomanana as saying.

Marc Ravalomanana must be extremely frustrated, or tired or at the very least not at his best to have said something like this over a Radio station. This kind of statement will  instigate the decline of his credibility, this isn’t something to be said lightly without evidence pointing  the exact reasons why France is behind it. Now everyone along with France will comment on these bold statements which I suspect will put some distance between them and Marc Ravalomanana. It’s too bad because the statement, though bold, is not entirely false. There have been a great deal of oddities seen from the French as this whole situation was unfolding. In fact, I wrote a great deal of blog posts that insinuated or mentions that France had some involvement  with the current political situation:

I believe that France may have an indirect or direct hand in this whole crisis, after all, they would only stand to benefit from the removal of Ravalomanana however it was accomplished. But I am afraid that the international community is now going to at best be wary of how close they are to Ravalomanana and a worst start to distance themselves from him. After all it does sound a bit like crazy talk when you ramble on about invoking tribal wars and enslaving Malagasy, especially for those who are not from Madagascar and could not possibly understand the context of the statement.

So… I sit here, anxiously waiting for the statement from France or others… checking the news, twitter… etc… hoping that this kind of just goes away and flies under the radar. While I was poking around and doing some reading I found this article on Midi Madigasikara stating that both Ratsiraka and Ravalomanana will be at the negotiations starting tomorrow…. I wonder if that is true? I wonder if it is because they realize there is no other way (Midi Madigasikara FR):

“Theoretically, the Ratsiraka movement will be there tomorrow (today) at the Carlton. “Says Professor Ange Andrianarisoa.” In principle, we should be there tomorrow (today), “said for his part RAHARINAIVO Andrianantoandro of Ravalomanana movement.

And because there seems to be no other way, it would appear that Andry Rajoelina will continue to govern Madagascar until the next election is held, according to the document so far. Scary isn’t it? How did we go from international condemnation of the HAT to serious negotiations with them AND having them continue to be the transitional government when the agreement is signed? What/Who is behind this agreement anyway?

It is crystal clear to me now that this agreement was created to legitimize the HAT and open the pockets of the international donors under the guise of moving towards democracy. I am not against a transitional government that will lead towards democracy, and I am also not against negotiations between the parties involved in the crisis or international assistance. Why is this agreement so beneficial to the HAT?

This is how I see it:

  • This problem is between Ravalomanana and Rajoelina. There should be no negotiations with any other party.
  • My Opinion: Ravalomanana was re-elected as president, so we should be working on restoring his status and then having elections/referendum within 9-14 months. The HAT should have no authority as it had never provided the people with a choice. Let the people decide who they want, not the HAT telling people what they want.
  • My Politically Correct Opinion: Neither the HAT or Ravalomanana should have power, a new interum government should be put in place while elections are organized ASAP. Why should any one side have control when the people haven’t chosen? This will not legitimize the HAT, but will allow for international donations to begin flowing again.
  • International observers should be present and ready to allow for a fair election.
  • President should be chosen by vote and people live with the results.

Something really doesn’t smell right about the current agreement… so I hope that somehow the negotiations alter the agreement so that it makes more sense.

I would be scared to have 14 months of  “legitimate” HAT rule, and would also be afraid that when the time comes for an election, something might come up (manufactured, of course)  that will cause them to postpone or delay them. The international community is less likely to take a hard line against the postponement of an election than they are against a coup d’etat. It would probably take some time for them to put pressure on the government to hold that election, and it is certainly something that would make much  international news (unless of course there is major civil unrest because of it). I hope I am wrong.

    Not hungry for power?

    Not thirsty for power? You can almost get a giggle out of the blog title if you imagine Andry Rajoelina saying this seriously to someone. The quote is this:

    “I am not thirsty for power, I do not want to cling to power. I just want to bring democracy to Madagascar,” Rajoelina said Wednesday, May 13.

    He says speaking to reporters about the special agreement that was somehow concocted between him and the UN. Or maybe just him? I don’t think there was ever a resolution on the UN mediator bias, that could be the only reason Ican think of that the HAT and all former presidents are not able to participate in elections in this agreement, while the so called ‘transitional authority’ is entrusted with organizing fair and transparent elections? What does the HAT know of fair? How could anyone ever believe that they could organize anything fair when they have been replacing people left and right from fokotany to mayors?

    And how did the process of resolving the crisis depend on the decision of most its recent ex-presidents? I know I have said this before, but isn’t this crisis between Marc Ravalomanana and Andry Rajoelina? How did we ever get Albert Zafy and Didier Ratsiraka involved in the negotiations? Perhaps it is wool to be pulled over our eyes? Perhaps it is a reason to delay a legitimate political ruler? I can’t think of any reasons… and it bothers me that they are participating. They are distracting everyone from the real issues and slowing all the negotiations down to a crawl, and you know they are only there to benefit from something. Who has heard from Albert Zafy until the crisis? How can you trust he is out to help Madagascar when he only speaks out when there is political instability and a chance for him to return as president. And Ratsiraka and AREMA? Pierrot stated a couple of days the coup that he had a ‘deal’ with Andry Rajoelina. Now Ratsiraka confirming he had a deal too by saying:

    “I rejected the coup and the self-proclamation of Mr. Marc Ravalomanana in 2002. In the same way, I condemn the self-proclamation, the coup and the policy of Mr. Andry Rajoelina (president of the high transitional authority), whom I helped at the beginning of the current political crisis,” Ratsiraka said in an open letter.

    There is far too much political posturing to think this is simply just ‘resolving’ the crisis in Madagascar. And with posturing comes the demands… Now Ratsiraka refuses to participate in negotiations until all the exiles and crimes against him and his government are forgotten:

    “Before any real negotiations to quell this crisis, (I demand) that all inquiries, decisions and judicial findings linked to the events of 2002 are purely and simply annulled and, in particular, those that were political,” Ratisraka wrote.

    Who cares if he wants something, he has nothing to do with the current crisis aside from a possible helping hand. Ravalomanana also refuses to participate until he is allowed to return to Madagascar:

    “If the conditions for Ravalomanana’s return are not discussed, or there is no agreement, then we will quit the negotiating table,” Raharianivo Andrianantoandro, spokesman for Ravalomanana’s political party, told Reuters.

    What’s next? Will Albert Zafy demand something tomorrow? Will we have to wait for his demands to be fulfilled to before we continue to negotiate?

    Are we all hoping that Andry Rajoelina, Albert Zafy, Didier Ratsiraka and Marc Ravalomanana will all agree on something and move ahead? Yeah right! Maybe in some sort of alternate dimension. Since when does negotiation between people hungry for the office of the president go well? I think this agreement is dead in the water, they are just wasting precious time in these negotiations when we could use that time to help all the Malagasy that are suffering.

    But does it matter at all if the negotiations go well? If this agreement goes anywhere or not, it appears that the UN is more than happy to have the HAT leading the transitional government over the next 14 months. It also appears that everyone but Marc Ravalomanana has something gain from this. Ratsiraka and his gang are constantly pursuing their precious amnesty from all their crimes, and will probably get it or at the very least they have been pardoned. Albert Zafy has gotten attention and possibly another shot at being president. Andry Rajoelina gets to rule the country until the next government is elected (if that even happens, or if it happens fairly).

    But Marc Ravalomanana cannot, and probably will not be able to go back to Madagascar for the forseeable future. Underneath all of the talk and news it really just comes down to Marc Ravalomanana being pushed aside. Despite all the promises of coming home (the video with Al Jazeera where he states that he will come back by force if he has to), there is no chance that he is going to be able to come back. If you think about it really… what are the chances that these talks will ever go anywhere? With so many people to negotiate, there is no chance that they are going to to agree on anything, so perhaps no ones requests will be granted… hence, no return to Madagascar for Ravalomanana. What about going back to Madagascar by force? What African force would stand behind Ravalomanana and possibly provoke a civil war? Who would want to go against the UN and AU’s peaceful approach to resolution? It would have to be a miracle, or some specially built up of forces local to Madagascar to defend Ravalomanana’s return. And even if THAT happened, it would be viewed negatively by the AU/UN as it would have very high potential for civil war and he would be instigating. See… there is just a very low probability of this happening.

    It is going to take some miracle to get Marc Ravalomanana back into Madagascar without reprocussions. But I hope that some how, some way, we can trim the fat that has grown on this crisis, so to speak. Get rid of Albert Zafy, Didier Ratsiraka and Pierrot Rajaonarivelo because they have no reason or right to even be there. Let’s start negotiating the only two people involved in the crisis, Marc Ravalomanana and Andry Rajoelina. Let’s focus on the crisis and those involved, not the people that helped the crisis to flourish and have their own agendas.

    New post on its way

    Sorry, was on a brief hiatus enjoying the weather. I have just finished updating the crisis timeline and the twitter timeline with information. Seems like TopMada and Sobika have stopped doing their daily timelines for a bit, so the crisis timeline page is lacking a bit. For the twitter timeline page, I have changed from the confusing “find which link is which” method to ‘Tweet:Story’. This way you can find out who tweeted the information in the first link… and if you don’t care, you can jump right into the related story with the second link.

    Will be posting sometime today… not sure when though.

    Making Mada France Friendly

    So Andry Rajoelina is not going to run for the next presidential election (not that he could under the current constitution anyway)? Does the mean that he is subtly admitting he is/was used as a tool?

    “I am not thirsty for power, I do not want to cling to power. I just want to bring democracy to Madagascar,” Rajoelina said Wednesday.

    If he had fought for so long, manipulated the army into turning on the incumbent government and had risen to call himself president, wouldn’t he want to maintain his status as such? Though the struggle was short, it was still quite a struggle for him to get where he is today. So why would someone who has complete control over a country now make such a bold offer that is more or less irreversible if it were agreed upon? It doesn’t make sense does it? Especially with all the previous talk about having a 4th republic of Madagascar just to accomodate for Andry Rajoelina’s age.

    I guess it could be for a couple reasons, or the combination of them:

    • Perhaps the international pressure is too much for their government and the lack of aid is driving them to do something to appease the international community, but in a small sense, still get their way.
    • Perhaps the puppet master now seeks to clear the stage for the  “better alternative” to the HAT government (which could be just about anything at this point) and to Marc Ravalomanana.

    International Pressure

    Despite the new deal signed with the Saudis, perhaps the government is at their wits end with trying to come up with money to finance their government. They have made cuts to benefits and salaries for civil servants, sold a jet, made up excessive tax bills for the former president and his company… but perhaps they still could not account for the 75% drop in their public investment budget through grants/donations… or maybe it was the loss in tourism dollars?

    An offer like this almost smells of desperation… smart desperation. It is almost analogous to when Marc Ravalomanana called for a referendum in his final days as president. It was a move that would never have been considered until it “had” to be, but it was also a move that was sure to draw international attention and support. So now we have Andry Rajoelina waiting to sign an agreement stating that he will not participate in upcoming elections so long as any other ex-president does not. You can almost state with certainty that Albert Zafy and Didier Ratsiraka had no intention of coming back as presidents… I don’t even know how they became involved in the first place! This is pretty much an ultimatum that is squarely aimed at Marc Ravalomanana.

    This ultimatum would certainly please France, since there seem to be many news articles stating that they are waiting with bated breath to confirm that Andry Rajoelina would not run in the next election. But it would also be something that would please most of the international community which has been focused on having elections by the end of 2009, why wouldn’t they be happy that Rajoelina is not going to be involved with the elections? After all, he is the president of an insurgent government right? This move essentially puts all eyes on Marc Ravalomanana and his response to this agreement. Will he hold out and demand his presidency back? Or will he sign the agreement so we can get back to democracy in Madagascar?

    Tricky little move isn’t it? This puts Marc Ravalomanana in a rock and a hard place, the same way the refusal to accept a referendum did for Andry Rajoelina. Funny how Andry Rajoelina seems to keep stealing from Marc’s playbook isn’t it? Anyway, I am all for the return of Marc Ravalomanana because he was the legal president to start with. If he was to be removed or defeated, that should have been done via the referendum not with this trickery. I think this only paves the way for the scenario that I am going to describe next and makes you question who is really behind all of this because clearly Andry Rajoelina is no longer gaining anything from this agreement if it were to be signed.

    The Puppet Master

    Who is the real puppet master then? Is it Pierrot Rajaonarivelo? Is it France? Is it both?

    There have been many instances where France and Pierrot have had interesting positions on the crisis:

    Andry Rajoelina is clearly not bringing forth this agreement because it is good for him, actually it is probably good  for everyone if we don’t ever see or hear from him again. There must be some other driving force behind this and it no doubt is political.

    The HAT has made it very clear to almost everyone in Madagascar that they are the government that nobody wants, and throughout the crisis have been attempting to demonize Marc Ravalomanana. So by putting forth an agreement that would not allow for the ex-presidents to participate on the next electoral ballot more or less creates a huge presidential candidacy void, doesn’t it? Now who do you think could fill that void? OK… enough of the obvious, it will be Pierrot Rajaonarivelo. He has never been an ex-president (even though he wanted to be), and who else is there to run against him? Monja Roindefo? He is popular these days isn’t he? I don’t know or have heard of any other good presidential candidates that could stand against him… so if Marc Ravalomanana ever signs this agreement, isn’t it more or less electing Pierrot Rajaonarivelo president? Is this what Pierrot meant by having a “deal”?

    Does this only involve Pierrot or does France have a hand in this? I guess no one may really ever know, but the general concensus on the net is that anyone but Marc Ravalomanana would be good for relations between France and Madagascar… why else would they be so quick to “strengthen” their relationship before he was even inaugurated?

    It will be interesting to see what happens, all eyes are on Marc Ravalomanana now because I have no doubt that Didier and Albert signed the agreement as soon as it was proposed (my assumption, not fact). If Marc signs this agreement, then you might as well break out the AREMA party hats because your new president Pierrot will be running the show.