Opening a can of worms

I can’t say that I expected Marc Ravalomanana to announce what he did on the radio yesterday, basically stating that France is behind the coup and that they are trying to enslave and recolonise the Malagasy:

“(The French) objective is to recolonise Madagascar and enslave the Malagasy people. Their goal is to provoke a tribal war,” Ravalomanana said from exile in South Africa.

“France does not want Madagascar to develop. It is only concerned with its own interests.”

or

“France is now lobbying within the Francophone countries over the world to recognize the putschist regime of Andry Rajoelina,” Ravalomanana said, in reference to the former Antananarivo mayor, “Frenchmen do not want the development of our country, they always want to colonize us, they want to monopolize our independence, our wealth, which is the reason why they helped these thugs and these putchists to take power,” a local website, madatimes.com, quoted Ravalomanana as saying.

Marc Ravalomanana must be extremely frustrated, or tired or at the very least not at his best to have said something like this over a Radio station. This kind of statement will  instigate the decline of his credibility, this isn’t something to be said lightly without evidence pointing  the exact reasons why France is behind it. Now everyone along with France will comment on these bold statements which I suspect will put some distance between them and Marc Ravalomanana. It’s too bad because the statement, though bold, is not entirely false. There have been a great deal of oddities seen from the French as this whole situation was unfolding. In fact, I wrote a great deal of blog posts that insinuated or mentions that France had some involvement  with the current political situation:

I believe that France may have an indirect or direct hand in this whole crisis, after all, they would only stand to benefit from the removal of Ravalomanana however it was accomplished. But I am afraid that the international community is now going to at best be wary of how close they are to Ravalomanana and a worst start to distance themselves from him. After all it does sound a bit like crazy talk when you ramble on about invoking tribal wars and enslaving Malagasy, especially for those who are not from Madagascar and could not possibly understand the context of the statement.

So… I sit here, anxiously waiting for the statement from France or others… checking the news, twitter… etc… hoping that this kind of just goes away and flies under the radar. While I was poking around and doing some reading I found this article on Midi Madigasikara stating that both Ratsiraka and Ravalomanana will be at the negotiations starting tomorrow…. I wonder if that is true? I wonder if it is because they realize there is no other way (Midi Madigasikara FR):

“Theoretically, the Ratsiraka movement will be there tomorrow (today) at the Carlton. “Says Professor Ange Andrianarisoa.” In principle, we should be there tomorrow (today), “said for his part RAHARINAIVO Andrianantoandro of Ravalomanana movement.

And because there seems to be no other way, it would appear that Andry Rajoelina will continue to govern Madagascar until the next election is held, according to the document so far. Scary isn’t it? How did we go from international condemnation of the HAT to serious negotiations with them AND having them continue to be the transitional government when the agreement is signed? What/Who is behind this agreement anyway?

It is crystal clear to me now that this agreement was created to legitimize the HAT and open the pockets of the international donors under the guise of moving towards democracy. I am not against a transitional government that will lead towards democracy, and I am also not against negotiations between the parties involved in the crisis or international assistance. Why is this agreement so beneficial to the HAT?

This is how I see it:

  • This problem is between Ravalomanana and Rajoelina. There should be no negotiations with any other party.
  • My Opinion: Ravalomanana was re-elected as president, so we should be working on restoring his status and then having elections/referendum within 9-14 months. The HAT should have no authority as it had never provided the people with a choice. Let the people decide who they want, not the HAT telling people what they want.
  • My Politically Correct Opinion: Neither the HAT or Ravalomanana should have power, a new interum government should be put in place while elections are organized ASAP. Why should any one side have control when the people haven’t chosen? This will not legitimize the HAT, but will allow for international donations to begin flowing again.
  • International observers should be present and ready to allow for a fair election.
  • President should be chosen by vote and people live with the results.

Something really doesn’t smell right about the current agreement… so I hope that somehow the negotiations alter the agreement so that it makes more sense.

I would be scared to have 14 months of  “legitimate” HAT rule, and would also be afraid that when the time comes for an election, something might come up (manufactured, of course)  that will cause them to postpone or delay them. The international community is less likely to take a hard line against the postponement of an election than they are against a coup d’etat. It would probably take some time for them to put pressure on the government to hold that election, and it is certainly something that would make much  international news (unless of course there is major civil unrest because of it). I hope I am wrong.

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