A return by force?

There has been a very interesting series of events in the last few days that may lead to some very interesting weeks ahead if true. I wrote yesterday about the paranoia of the HAT and perhaps the army as they had rushed the Ivato international airport looking for Marc Ravalomanana or anyone associated with him. As it turns out, what I had mentioned at the tail end of my post regarding forces waiting for Ravalomanana might not be as far fetched as I thought.

At some point yesterday had stated to his supporters that he will be coming back essentially by force with some sort of international body that is going to be cleaning up the corruption in Madagascar. Here is an exerpt from a MadaOnline article:

Marc Ravalomanana said in a statement issued on 28 May that the military “pacification” under the aegis of the international community are preparing to perform a mission to Madagascar. He called the military malgaches to “lay down their arms” when the “peacemakers” will perform their mission.

“The soldiers, gendarmes and police who continue to support Rajoelina Andry and his band will be prosecuted” hammered Marc Ravalomanana. The president in exile called on the victims of abuses of the team Rajoelina not to succumb to the temptation of mob justice when the law will be reinstated in the national territory.

Here is another from Mada24.info:

President Ravalomanana raised the possibility of intervention by international forces. “The soldiers, gendarmes and police to help further Andry Rajoelina and” his gang “(sic) will be considered when the international community will decide that the time has come to restore order and security on the territory of the Republic of Madagascar “he says.

“The soldiers, gendarmes and police peace-loving and who do their work will be required to surrender their weapons when the time comes to do so. Marc Ravalomanana to prevent those who refuse will be subject to heavy penalties. “What citizens victims of abuse do not hinder the actions of the peacemakers, they will help restore the rule of law, we must let them accomplish their mission, help them if need be! “He added.

So it would stand to reason that the HAT had some information on this well before it was announced. Why else would they send so many military to an airport just for Marc Ravalomanana and his associates? That was definitely a knee-jerk reaction to the possible risk of foriegn personnel and/or Marc Ravalomanana. But what is definitely worse than this knee-jerk reaction is to hijack a plane (essentially) and fly to a destination of his choice and force all the passengers of the plane to wait until his little political meeting is done.  That’s right, Andry Rajoelina used his authority to divert a plane to Senegal to meet with Abdoulaye Wade who  apparently recognizes the HAT of Madagascar, article from Xinhuanet:

The agreement was made between Senegalese President Abdoulaye Wade and Rajoelina, president of the Madagascan High Transitional Authority (HTA) who concluded a one-day visit to the Senegalese capital of Dakar on Friday.

During the talks between the two presidents on Thursday, Wade agreed with HTA position of being against the return of former Madagascan president Marc Ravalomanana to his home country, the communiqué said.

What agreement…. was this just a verbal agreement or something else? The only thing that seems to be agreed upon is that they are both against the return of Marc Ravalomanana to Madagascar. So the fact that this was a very imprompt to flight and meeting, it has to make you wonder just how worried the HAT is, and what kind of pressure they are under. It has to be bad since according to flight schedules, the Air Madagascar flight was expected in Paris on Thursday morning at 10:20am, which technically invalidates anything to company might say later regarding the delay:

A group of Caennais who had spent three weeks in Madagascar has experienced a hectic return to Paris. Wednesday evening, while the Boeing 767 of Air Madagascar was preparing to take off in the direction of France, the aircraft suddenly been requisitioned by the Malagasy authorities.

Andry Rajoelina, the new strong man of Madagascar, had decided to go to … Dakar, for a tour of seduction with President Wade. The visit was imminent, according to sources malgaches. Obviously, everyone was aware. Except Air Madagascar? The company, whose aircraft was expected in Paris, Thursday morning at 10 h 20, has preferred to forget radio silence and to prevent passengers they were going to do a check to West Africa. Confirmed by a staff member: “This flight was scheduled to pass through Dakar for three days. The problem is that passengers were not warned. “

So something is afoot here, especially since there has been increased military activity around the capital:

In recent days, military camps in the capital were visibly alert. Armored vehicles are stationed near the Ministry of the Armed Forces. It is a fact quite rare. Once the first false alarm on the return of Marc Ravalomanana, May 27, a hundred soldiers were deployed at the international airport Ivato. In vain.

So will the return of Marc Ravalomanana actually happen? I had written it off at the time simply because it did not make sense when there were negotiations occurring, and because of Ravalomanana’s outburst accusing France. But all of this panic must have a purpose, someone must know something and I suspect we will find out very soon what that something is. I just hope for the sake of everyone in Madagascar that it does not start some sort of civil war. Guaranteed I will be waiting and watching in anticipation… I will update the blog as soon as I see something.


One Response

  1. Andry Rajoelina is an arrogant and dangerous Tana Merina who married big, hooked himself to ex-politcal hacks in Paris and Malagasy coastal thugs who then overthrew the government with coordinated acts of violence across the country and the help of well rewarded members of the military. Look up Monja Roindefo’s father, Monja Joana, who, as the leader of the political movement MONIMA, in 1971 sent his followers armed with spears against Gendarmes with modern weapons. Roindefo used his father’s tactics at Ambohitsirohitra and this time it worked. Look up the predecessors to Roland Ratsirika’s “Tanora Tonga Saina” movement. The TTS of the 1980’s were young street thugs loyal to Didier Ratsiraka who were called on to break up oppostion demonstrations and start riots and demonstrations for Ratsiraka’s political party. Roland has honed his father’s tactics to a fine edge.

    Examine the series of events starting in December 2008 when this coalition decided to go public with the airing of the Didier Ratsiraka calls for an overthrow on Rajoelina’s TV station. Think back to the first week of January, 2009 and the prison breaks of dozens of polictical prisoners. This was a well planned, violent coup d’ etat planned to put a coalition of old and new political players in power. These people knew what they wanted and knew from intimate connection to Madagascar’s violent political history how to get it. It has nothing to do with democracy, the country’s poor, or Marc Ravalomanana excesses. The coup d’ etat depended only on Ravalomanana’s inattention to what was happening under his nose.

    The HAT is a entity born in violence that will never let Ravalomanana back in Madagascar without another armed struggle. They will decieve and lie to fool the Malagasy people, international governments and peace representatives to stall a return to electoral democracy until they have had the time to load the government from fokontany, commune, district, region and farintany all the way up to the federal ministries with Raloelina, Roindefo, and Ratsiraka supporters. They will never submit to elections until they are certain of the outcome.

    All of the noise coming out of these supposed reconciliation conferences is nothing but noise. They will never give back any power unless by force of arms. That’s what Ravalomana faces if he lives up to his promise to return this month.

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