There has been a very interesting series of events in the last few days that may lead to some very interesting weeks ahead if true. I wrote yesterday about the paranoia of the HAT and perhaps the army as they had rushed the Ivato international airport looking for Marc Ravalomanana or anyone associated with him. As it turns out, what I had mentioned at the tail end of my post regarding forces waiting for Ravalomanana might not be as far fetched as I thought.
At some point yesterday had stated to his supporters that he will be coming back essentially by force with some sort of international body that is going to be cleaning up the corruption in Madagascar. Here is an exerpt from a MadaOnline article:
Marc Ravalomanana said in a statement issued on 28 May that the military “pacification” under the aegis of the international community are preparing to perform a mission to Madagascar. He called the military malgaches to “lay down their arms” when the “peacemakers” will perform their mission.
“The soldiers, gendarmes and police who continue to support Rajoelina Andry and his band will be prosecuted” hammered Marc Ravalomanana. The president in exile called on the victims of abuses of the team Rajoelina not to succumb to the temptation of mob justice when the law will be reinstated in the national territory.
Here is another from Mada24.info:
President Ravalomanana raised the possibility of intervention by international forces. “The soldiers, gendarmes and police to help further Andry Rajoelina and” his gang “(sic) will be considered when the international community will decide that the time has come to restore order and security on the territory of the Republic of Madagascar “he says.
“The soldiers, gendarmes and police peace-loving and who do their work will be required to surrender their weapons when the time comes to do so. Marc Ravalomanana to prevent those who refuse will be subject to heavy penalties. “What citizens victims of abuse do not hinder the actions of the peacemakers, they will help restore the rule of law, we must let them accomplish their mission, help them if need be! “He added.
So it would stand to reason that the HAT had some information on this well before it was announced. Why else would they send so many military to an airport just for Marc Ravalomanana and his associates? That was definitely a knee-jerk reaction to the possible risk of foriegn personnel and/or Marc Ravalomanana. But what is definitely worse than this knee-jerk reaction is to hijack a plane (essentially) and fly to a destination of his choice and force all the passengers of the plane to wait until his little political meeting is done. That’s right, Andry Rajoelina used his authority to divert a plane to Senegal to meet with Abdoulaye Wade who apparently recognizes the HAT of Madagascar, article from Xinhuanet:
The agreement was made between Senegalese President Abdoulaye Wade and Rajoelina, president of the Madagascan High Transitional Authority (HTA) who concluded a one-day visit to the Senegalese capital of Dakar on Friday.
During the talks between the two presidents on Thursday, Wade agreed with HTA position of being against the return of former Madagascan president Marc Ravalomanana to his home country, the communiqué said.
What agreement…. was this just a verbal agreement or something else? The only thing that seems to be agreed upon is that they are both against the return of Marc Ravalomanana to Madagascar. So the fact that this was a very imprompt to flight and meeting, it has to make you wonder just how worried the HAT is, and what kind of pressure they are under. It has to be bad since according to flight schedules, the Air Madagascar flight was expected in Paris on Thursday morning at 10:20am, which technically invalidates anything to company might say later regarding the delay:
A group of Caennais who had spent three weeks in Madagascar has experienced a hectic return to Paris. Wednesday evening, while the Boeing 767 of Air Madagascar was preparing to take off in the direction of France, the aircraft suddenly been requisitioned by the Malagasy authorities.
Andry Rajoelina, the new strong man of Madagascar, had decided to go to … Dakar, for a tour of seduction with President Wade. The visit was imminent, according to sources malgaches. Obviously, everyone was aware. Except Air Madagascar? The company, whose aircraft was expected in Paris, Thursday morning at 10 h 20, has preferred to forget radio silence and to prevent passengers they were going to do a check to West Africa. Confirmed by a staff member: “This flight was scheduled to pass through Dakar for three days. The problem is that passengers were not warned. “
So something is afoot here, especially since there has been increased military activity around the capital:
In recent days, military camps in the capital were visibly alert. Armored vehicles are stationed near the Ministry of the Armed Forces. It is a fact quite rare. Once the first false alarm on the return of Marc Ravalomanana, May 27, a hundred soldiers were deployed at the international airport Ivato. In vain.
So will the return of Marc Ravalomanana actually happen? I had written it off at the time simply because it did not make sense when there were negotiations occurring, and because of Ravalomanana’s outburst accusing France. But all of this panic must have a purpose, someone must know something and I suspect we will find out very soon what that something is. I just hope for the sake of everyone in Madagascar that it does not start some sort of civil war. Guaranteed I will be waiting and watching in anticipation… I will update the blog as soon as I see something.
Filed under: 2009 Madagascar Political Crisis | Tagged: Abdoulaye Wade, Air Madagascar, civil war, coup, crisis, d'etat, hat, hijack, madagascar, madagascar crisis, putsch, Rajoelina, ravalomanana, return, Senegal, tgoose, tgv, toiletgoose |