Well, in light of all of the recent series of set backs and bad news there is one little gem of good news, the EU has formally decided the freeze all aid that was to go to Madagascar, which amounts to about 630 million euros.
This has got to be a major blow to the HAT as this pretty much freezes up all aid from every major supporter:
And I have to say that I am glad… at the very least because it shows that none of the donor countries will tolerate an illegal government and also because it will put more non-violent pressure on the government to reconsider what it has been doing and head towards a democratic resolution.
Not that I expect them to give up power any time soon, I expect that they will cling to power as long as possible by selling what they can and making as many deals as possible with any one who will entertain them. But should all of that fall through, you will see a new found sense of co-operation with them and the AU negotiator.
The progress on the crisis will remain slow I suspect, it will probably be several months still until we see anything major occur. I guess this is the downside of a non-violent solution, but anything is better than making the already suffering Malagasy suffer even more in a war between the corrupt Malagasy army and the SADC forces (had COMESA convinced them to intervene).
There has been a rumour over the last little while that Marc Ravalomanana will be hiring mercenaries to invade Madagascar to restore him to power since the AU will not. I think it is a complete untruth and is probably some misinformation that the HAT is trying to spread around to explain their military purchases or odd behaviour. It was most likely the article where Rajoelina stated:
Why on earth would Ravalomanana at this point want to go against the direction of the international community and become no better than Rajoelina and the HAT? It doesn’t make sense, does it? Not only that, who would be funding an army big enough to go to Madagascar and do what he needs done? Would he really want to spend his remaining money on something that in the end, would not benefit him? I doubt it. The rumour is bull. Ravalomanana will be awaiting the collapse of the HAT or a break-through in negotiations because this is the only legitimate way back to power, and the only way back without bloodshed.
So get ready to wait some more… it will be a while. But now that all funding has been cut, we should see better progress than we had previously.
Here are some AP articles on the EU’s rejection of the HAT government and freezing of aid:
- Rajoelina appeals to EU
- EU unhappy on Madagascar progress, aid stays frozen
- Madagascar government satisfied with EU talks
Filed under: 2009 Madagascar Political Crisis | Tagged: aid, au, civil war, comesa, coup, crisis, d’etat, eu, frozen, hat, hijack, madagascar, madagascar crisis, military intervention, putsch, Rajoelina, ratsiraka, ravalomanana, sadc, tgoose, tgv, tiko, toiletgoose, un, zafy |