D-Day

I have not had time over the last little while to post anything, not that there was much to report. Anyone who reads this blog can probably guess what happened in Madagascar with the government:

  • Rajoelina continues to baulk at the Maputo accord.
  • Rajoelina continues to “try” and look as though he is open, and ready to have an inclusive government.

That’s basically it… ever… it is always Rajoelina trying to look as though he is doing good to win international recognition as the president. I wonder why he doesn’t realize that that ship has sailed?

Anyway, another thing that Rajoelina was baulking at was the specter of sanctions that are going to be targeted at the illegal government, hence the D-Day title.  His answer actually to the threat of sanctions was to hold a weak meeting of mostly TGV supporters on March 4-5th to come up with an “inclusive” (if you can even say that about a dictator) solution to the crisis. As usual, when responding to questions on the threat of sanctions he states that Malagasy can find the solution to their own problems:

“We are convinced that the Malagasy alone will find a solution,” Rajoelina said in a television address late Thursday, referring to Madagascar’s citizens. “We will consider steps to take and gather views from the majority so we can come up with a political structure.”

“We have received the message from the international community about sanctions. But we think it is time for the Malagasy to assume their responsibilities,” he said.

Rajoelina is clearly delusional at this point, because it is quite clear at least from where I sit in the western world that most of the world, save France (who seems to like it’s illegal rosewood), is against the illegal government and will not in anyway accept his government. But for whatever reason, he is not getting that point and is continuing to drag his feet on complying with the inclusive talks and agreements that have been reached at Maputo. We would have been much further ahead at this point if he had gone into those meetings with the actual intention to resolve the crisis, but of course he was only ever trying legitimize his power. We have known for some time now that Rajoelina had no intention of leading a transitional government for change, unless of course that change is to bankrupt Madagascar.

Now sanctions are the last thing anyone would want on a country, especially in light of the recent disaster caused by cyclone Hubert, where 14 people died and 37,891 have been made homeless. But unfortunately, this is the ONLY method that remains to rid Madagascar of the TGV plague. The sanctions that they are going to impose are targeted specifically to the HAT. They are most likely to start off with a travel ban for all HAT members, followed by a freezing of assets. Hopefully they do not have to implement deeper sanctions, I actually find it hard to believe that the current sanctions won’t affect the Malagasy because Rajoelina will most likely take what he needs from Malagasy coffers if he were restricted to Madagascar with frozen assets.

Hopefully this will be the end for the HAT, but it is not going to be easy. The HAT is going to be kicking and screaming all the way down taking as much of Madagascar with it as it can. Even today, in the face of the sanctions Rajoelina remains defiant stating that he is not afraid.

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