So over the weekend we have seen various reports in the news of a miraculous break up of a coup attempt on the coup government:
On April 12, the army gave the president until the end of April to offer an acceptable way out of the political crisis and end the uncertainty that has hit foreign investment and left the economy struggling.
HAT President Andry Rajoelina made no comments on Ravalomanana’s dismissal, but soon promoted colonel Vital to the rank of brigadier general, indicating the logic that colonel Vital could not overpower general Rakotonandrasana over the control of military officers, without the necessary promotion.
I find this to be a very interesting development because I think this could potentially prove me wrong on my thoughts from my previous post.
I was trying to figure out where this recent development would fit into everything that I had said… thinking to myself, what purpose would this serve if the HAT had orchestrated this, especially since this coup attempt was clearly orchestrated by the HAT.
They say that they have arrested 19 people, which I feel would be a pretty low number of people required to over throw a government. On top of that, they don’t look like they would be a threat to anyone:
So, the only thing that I could come up with as to why they would manufacture a coup is that there are actually divisions in the army and they had staged this coup for the following reasons:
- To show that the HAT has control of the military and that there are no problems with the military being united.
- To quickly promote Camille Vital to the rank of brigadier general so that he has more authority than Noel Rakotonandrasana.
They seem to be trying harder in recent days to convince the press and the Malagasy people that they have everything under control and that there is most certainly no divisions or problems within the military. It is clear now that this couldn’t be further from the truth, especially in light of the recent firing/arrests of:
Two of the most well known military personnel that had been instrumental in helping the HAT with their coup d’etat. Now they are being fired and arrested? How can this make any sense?
Well, if there are in fact true divisions in the military or if it is just that the military is starting withdraw it support of the HAT government then all this makes perfect sense. So I guess the clock is really running and perhaps the ultimatum is real, and maybe there really will be some repercussions at the end of April.
All of the effort that they have put foward thus far seems to be around trying to contain the threat that the military has put on his government:
- Removing high ranking officers that would pose a threat.
- Elevating Camille Vital to outrank Noel Rakotonandrasana to try and have authority over the military.
I wonder who will be next on the hit list for the HAT? Andre Andriarijaona?
I have my doubts as to how successful this will be since Camille Vital appears to be more of a tool for the HAT to try and bridge the gap between the politicians and military rather than the military controlling the HAT as I had previously thought.
I can’t imagine that any of this will work though, I think of the military as a group of people that are loyal to one another so I doubt that it would make an ounce of difference if the HAT said that Vital controlled the military. I guess we will now have to wait and see what comes of the ultimatum and if there will actually be talks between Ravalomanana and Rajoelina.
Filed under: 2009 Madagascar Political Crisis | Tagged: agreement, Alain, Andre, Andrianasoavina, Andriarijaona, april, army, arrest, camille, charles, coup, crisis, d’etat, deadline, electoral commission, eu, failed, france, hat, interim, Joyandet, lie, madagascar, madagascar crisis, march 17, money, Noel, putsch, Rajoelina, Rakotonandrasana, ratsiraka, road map, sadc, sanctions, South Africa, tgoose, tgv, tgv party, toiletgoose, transition, ultimatum, vital, zafy |