I haven’t updated this blog in quite some time as I felt that things had not changed enough to say anything about aside from the same old complaints that it seems I am repeating endlessly. However, I have been watching the news and watching all the civil unrest that is spreading over most of Africa in Niger, Guinea, Mauritania and the Ivory coast and also in Arab nations with the unrest in Tunisia and Egypt and it has made me wonder what this world is coming to.
The election in the Ivory Coast is what I find most interesting though as it appears this is evidence of a bad trend started by Madagascar and made possible by the weak and likely corrupt AU/SADC. Now that Andry Rajoelina has been allowed to stay as pseudo-president in Madagascar since March of 2009 with virtually no repercussions aside from sanctions that have been applied by the international community. Now the SADC is now recommending that Andry Rajoelina stay as ‘interim president’ while elections are organized:
South African Development Community mediators in Madagascar proposed Andry Rajoelina be recognized as president of an interim government until elections this year, almost two years after he seized power with the help of the army.
The proposal is made in a document given to political parties in the Indian Ocean island nation today, said Mamy Rakotoarivelo, acting head of the TIM opposition party of former President Marc Ravalomanana. This follows a monthlong visit by SADC mediators to the country.
“For us this is a legitimization of the coup d’etat,” Rakotoarivelo said by phone from the capital, Antananarivo. “We are giving all the power to Andry Rajoelina, who was never elected, and making him President.”
It is remarkable that after 2 years of obtaining power illegally in Madagascar that the SADC endorse him as an interim president as if all of the sudden it is OK. While there may be ‘some’ merit to selecting Rajoelina as an interim president, his government is still illegal and this decision is sending a very bad message to all of Africa.
If we were to apply some of the history of the Madagascar crisis to the Ivory coast, it is very likely that outcome for this situation (provided Laurent Gbagbo can maintain his funding and control of the Army) will be the same: mediation, power sharing and unity government talks and finally complacency when they are out of the news at which point it will take a major event to change the outcome. It would seem the AU/SADC message is to all African countries is that they silently endorse coups as they are too weak and disorganized to deal with them effectively. Going forward, I would not be surprised if there were rampant coup d’etat s across Africa (if there aren’t enough already) as there are absolutely no repercussions to having them.
Speaking of the weak and disorganized AU/SADC, from a similar article they are once again publicly stating that they want to resolve the crisis by building some sort of ‘unity’ government:
A regional mediator has submitted a roadmap to Madagascar’s political parties for a way out of the country’s crisis that would keep Andry Rajoelina as interim leader, according to a copy obtained by AFP Tuesday.
The document, which must now be approved by Madagascan parties, confirms Rajoelina as “interim president” and recommends “the formation of a consensual and inclusive, interim national unity government.”
Does anyone now believe that after 2 years of establishing an illegal government throughout the country that a ‘power sharing’ deal of any kind would work at this point? Solutions such as these I would think work best when a crisis is fresh and the corruption has not had a chance to spread throughout the country. Creating a unity government at this point will either:
- Implement a government that is already corrupt from the start
- Implement unity government that for the most part will not be able to perform its work inevitably leading to another crisis.
If the AU/SADC do not get any teeth or aren’t able to apply more severe sanctions or any other measure on any African country these coups will not stop. In fact, there will be no fear in having a coup because Madagascar has now proven that it is a very successful way of gaining control of a country.
Filed under: 2009 Madagascar Political Crisis | Tagged: army, coup, crisis, d’etat, ecological, elections, fauna, flora, hat, imf, life sentence, madagascar, madagascar crisis, neverending putsch, poverty, putsch, Rajoelina, rosewood, sadc, sadc endorse rajoelina, sadc fail, sanctions, tgoose, tgv, tgv party, toiletgoose, transition, unilateral | 3 Comments »