SADC endorses Rajoelina as president

I haven’t updated this blog in quite some time as I felt that things had not changed enough to say anything about aside from the same old complaints that it seems I am repeating endlessly. However, I have been watching the news and watching all the civil unrest that is spreading over most of Africa in Niger, Guinea, Mauritania and the Ivory coast and also in Arab nations with the unrest in Tunisia and Egypt and it has made me wonder what this world is coming to.

The election in the Ivory Coast is what I find most  interesting though as it appears this is evidence of a bad trend started by Madagascar and made possible by the weak and likely corrupt AU/SADC. Now that Andry Rajoelina has been allowed to stay as pseudo-president in Madagascar since March of 2009  with virtually no repercussions aside from sanctions that have been applied by the international community. Now the SADC is now recommending that Andry Rajoelina stay as ‘interim president’ while elections are organized:

South African Development Community mediators in Madagascar proposed Andry Rajoelina be recognized as president of an interim government until elections this year, almost two years after he seized power with the help of the army.

The proposal is made in a document given to political parties in the Indian Ocean island nation today, said Mamy Rakotoarivelo, acting head of the TIM opposition party of former President Marc Ravalomanana. This follows a monthlong visit by SADC mediators to the country.

“For us this is a legitimization of the coup d’etat,” Rakotoarivelo said by phone from the capital, Antananarivo. “We are giving all the power to Andry Rajoelina, who was never elected, and making him President.”

It is remarkable that after 2 years of obtaining power illegally in Madagascar that the SADC endorse him as an interim president as if all of the sudden it is OK. While there may be ‘some’ merit to selecting Rajoelina as an interim president, his government is still illegal and this decision is sending a very bad message to all of Africa.

If we were to apply some of the history of the Madagascar crisis to the Ivory coast, it is very likely that outcome for this situation (provided Laurent Gbagbo can maintain his funding and control of the Army) will be the same: mediation, power sharing and unity government talks and finally complacency when they are out of the news at which point it will take a major event to change the outcome.  It would seem the AU/SADC message is to all African countries is that they silently endorse coups as they are too weak and disorganized to deal with them effectively. Going forward, I would not be surprised if there were rampant coup d’etat s across Africa (if there aren’t enough already) as there are absolutely no repercussions to having them.

Speaking of the weak and disorganized AU/SADC, from a similar article they are once again publicly stating that they want to resolve the crisis by building some sort of ‘unity’ government:

A regional mediator has submitted a roadmap to Madagascar’s political parties for a way out of the country’s crisis that would keep Andry Rajoelina as interim leader, according to a copy obtained by AFP Tuesday.

The document, which must now be approved by Madagascan parties, confirms Rajoelina as “interim president” and recommends “the formation of a consensual and inclusive, interim national unity government.”

It was submitted by Leonardo Simao, the Mozambican mediating on behalf of the 15-nation Southern African Development Community (SADC).

Does anyone now believe that after 2 years of establishing an illegal government throughout the country that a ‘power sharing’ deal of any kind would work at this point? Solutions such as these I would think work best when a crisis is fresh and the corruption has not had a chance to spread throughout the country. Creating a unity government at this point will either:

  1. Implement a government that is already corrupt from the start
  2. Implement unity government that for the most part will not be able to perform its work inevitably leading to another crisis.

If the AU/SADC do not get any teeth or aren’t able to apply more severe sanctions or any other measure on any African country these coups will not stop. In fact, there will be no fear in having a coup because Madagascar has now proven that it is a very successful way of gaining control of a country.



Hoping for international recognition

Note – Older, somewhat incomplete post:

What can I say, I feel like I have Andry Rajoelina and his government all figured out.  Why? Because Prime Minister Camille Vital is currently awaiting “International Recognition”.

I find it odd that they cannot comprehend that there is nothing they can do aside from meeting the demands of the international community to legitimize the government of Madagascar. Rajoelina must think he is quite clever if he can pull a “referendum” with overwhelming support and he will be recognized as the legitimate leader of the country. How naive must we be to think that the overwhelming majority of voters who voted “yes” (and are now much worse off because of him) voted that way because they think Rajoelina is going to bring them the change they want? We know very well that the votes were either payed for or coerced…

In their absence the former radio DJ Rajoelina has waged a strong campaign – characterised by outlandish populist promises and guest appearances by a range of local pop stars – for a “yes” vote in the plebiscite. Consequently, Rajoelina’s proposed constitution is likely to be endorsed in the referendum.

Why would anyone in any country be interested in voting when their lives and country had declined so badly? And what exactly would they be voting for? There isn’t anything in the “new” constitution that would actually benefit anyone but Andry Rajoealina…

The proposed constitution does not effectively limit presidential powers and it will lower the eligibility age to run for president from 40 to 35 years – allowing the 36-year-old Rajoelina to contest the 2011 election. Rajoelina has thus far assuaged domestic and international critics by arguing that he is not interested in power and does not intend to stand in the next presidential election, but he now seems to be angling for the presidency.

He fully intends on concentrating as much power as possible into the hands of the president and lower the minimum age of said president, but we are not to worry because he seriously does not want to run in the next election. How gullible do you have to believe that? As I have said before… first thing he is going to do is lower the age so he can actually qualify to be president under Malagasy law (not the pseudo presidential position called HAT) and then he is going to find some reason to mess with results or force his way into being president for life. His pockets are too full of money for him to do anything but be president.

It is clear that most people, if they can speak about it, are not happy about the current state of affairs in the country.