It looks like the US has finally had enough of the illegal regime of Andry Rajoelina and has recently decided to end Madagascar’s eligibility for AGOA (African Growth and Opportunity Act). Related articles: AllAfrica and DefenceWeb
This could potentially have a HUGE impact on the economy and an even bigger impact on the textile industry of Madagascar. According to this July, 2009 Reuters article the industry could face collapse if it is no longer eligible for AGOA. Here are some high level points of that article:
Madagascar’s textile industry makes $600 million a year.
Half of the 150 textile factories (employing 50,000 people) supply the following US companies: Walmart, Bloomingdale’s, PUMA and Adidas.
Madagascar’s textile industry contributes to 6.5 – 8% of the country’s GDP
Clothing exports from Madagascar to the US totalled $278.8 million in 2008.
More than half of Madagascar’s textile exports are destined for the US.
When US exports dry up, it will drive up costs in Europe which will cause Madagascar’s exports to become ‘unattractive’.
If AGOA is not in place, Madagascar’s distance would make it a very expensive operation due to fuel and electricity costs.
Mauritius, Swaziland and Lesotho stand to experience an impact if Madagascar loses AGOA as they supply textile materials to Madagascar.
According to the AGOA info page on Madagascar, since the country’s exports have been eligible under AGOA the number of exports from Madagascar have grown 3-fold.
The events of 2009 have had a tragic impact on Madagascar and any progress that it has made since 1999/2002 virtually reversing the progress that the country has made. Over the course of 2010 we are going to start to see the textile industry suffer and slowly die, adding those 50,000 people to the already high number of poor and unemployed people on the island.
It is really sad to sit back and watch a country that was finally starting to make progress and prosper to fall apart as quickly as it has. I was rooting for Madagascar and the progress it was making, especially the difference I had witnessed in only 3 years between my family’s visits.
Now it is just frustrating:
Frustrating that I don’t feel like my family can go back to visit Madagascar in its current state.
Frustrating to see how long this coup d’etat has been allowed to drag on.
Frustrating that this whole thing was started on the lie that Rajoelina was somehow going save the poor from the evil Ravalomanana, who despite any conflicts of interest for his presidency has done way more good than bad.
Frustrating that Rajoelina is using diplomacy as a tool to prolong his control over the country. He knows full well that all everyone wants to do is come together and reach an agreement to resolve the crisis, but he continually negotiates, then breaks negotations to stall progress.
Frustrating that the army is siding with Rajoelina and allowed the coup to happen and that they are not doing anything to correct their mistake.
Frustrating that I know there will never be other way to approach the political crisis other than negotiations (and cannot be any other way).
Frustrated that Rajoelina himself is too greedy and does not see what is happening to his own country as a direct result of his actions. That he doesn’t have the wisdom to realize his mistake and start working towards a resolution to the mess that he has made.
I honestly don’t think that we will see anything good come of the crisis in 2010, I can only hope that Rajoelina finally gives up and we can start repairing the damage that has been done.
Now that all of his opposition is safely tucked away in Mozambique, Andry Rajoelina is starting to show the world his new, heavily faulted plan… same as the old heavily faulted plan, try to rule Madagascar by himself insisting that he does not require any assistance from the international community.
It has been a little while since we have heard his “the people” line, but rest assure that when he says “the people” he means “Andry Rajoelina” so feel free to substitute. Here is another quote from the same article:
Why won’t it work Andry Rajoelina? It is quite simply because he cannot allow anyone to have even be close to the same level of power as he has, because he is the “High Authority of the Transition”, a post he made up and would like to keep… he doesn’t know how to share.
So in this latest turn of events, Rajoelina is returning to his old strategy of trying to ignore any negotiations and forget that he wanted to obtain the donor money that has been missing since he took power. Instead, he is going to dust off that old party line that “The crisis only involves the people of Madagascar, and only the people of Madagascar can resolve it”.
Tentative parliamentary elections are scheduled for March 20th of next year where there will no doubt be a lack of transparency since he doesn’t want any international observers to meddle with the voice of the people. I am pretty sure that March 20th will mark the return of Monja Roindefo if he doesn’t return any sooner.
And here we are, back at square one… the exact same place we were right after they had taken control of the country… rejecting all international demands and once again preparing to setup his own government.
About the only thing that will change the country now would be if the army were to end their support of Rajoelina… but then… would that be any better? I don’t think you can ever expect that the SADC will be sending troops in to rescue Madagascar and you certainly can’t expect that there will ever be any sort of unity government any time soon. So all we can expect is that this stalemate will continue well into next year.
After 5 long days of talks “without” Rajoelina, the 3 remaining political parties have determined a way to divvy up the governmental ministries among the 4 political movements. According to the associated press, the ministries have been split as follows:
So with all the opposition parties stuck in Mozambique, what can we expect next for the crisis in Madagascar? Most likely you can expect a great deal of banter back and forth between opposition parties, SADC and Rajoelina initially. But almost inevitably you can expect that Rajoelina will be coming back to the opposition/SADC with specific demands that will ensure that he not only maintains the ministries he wishes to control, but also ensure that he has supreme power over all other parties. These tactics are far from new and have been proven time and time again to be a very effective negotiating tactic. So at some point in the next month or so, there will be a meeting amongst all parties to try once again to distribute the governmental ministries amongst all political parties… this is, of course, after concessions are made by the opposition party for one or more of Rajoelina’s demands.
I am finding that this whole political situation is a lot like a game of Monopoly. Initially, it looks like there is a lot of progress and that some amazing things happen. But after a while, particularly near the end, you just end up going around the board endlessly hoping not to land on any property containing hotels. The game continues endlessly until the people with the least amount of property give in and finally concede to the person that has the most money/property and hotels. Inevitably I think that all the opposition parties are of course going to have to give in to a lot of demands that are being made by Rajoelina in order to inch closer to some sort of deal that will actually stick. As long as they do not define at the time of negotiations every little detail of the transitional government, talks will break off, the transitional government will fall apart and we will again be forced back the the negotiating table.
The one thing that is absolutely clear about the negotiations is that the opposition parties cannot negotiate amongst themselves without the assistance of mediator. If they are left on their own to negotiate, we can expect that this type of situation will repeat itself, ad nausium. I think it is time to either arrange an immediate election (within 6 months) or threaten to topple the coup by force and then have the election. If Rajoelina is left alone to wield supreme power over Madagascar these types of negotiating stunts are going to continue, perhaps endlessly. What Rajoelina is doing to the citizens of Madagascar is criminal and something needs to be done sooner rather than later.
It has been a long time since I have made a post, partly because I was on vacation for 6 weeks, but also because quite frankly I am getting bored and angry with the failures in negociations.
I seriously didn’t expect there to be any progress made while on vacation, and from the looks of things it was a reasonable expectation. Perhaps you can tell how hopeful I am of this situation ever being resolved?
At any rate, as I usually do, here is the rundown of all the things that had occurred during my vacation:
The sad part is that they will never change diplomatically because Rajoelina is where he wants to be, in his position of power. The AU/SADC and international community can throw all the negotiators they want at this problem, but all they are ever going to get from it is failure. After all, you are negotiating with a person that came to power via a coup d’etat, does anyone expect him to share or cooperate with anyone? The only thing that he will ever do is try to legitimize himself so he can restore the donor money to Madagascar so he can really have his way. About the only time you will ever see him ‘negotiate’ is if his government is about to fail or there is some risk to him personally (a la uprising).
So while we hear about the poor Malagasy to the south wishing for a cyclone to give them temporary relief from a nasty drought, while the Malagasy economy is capsizing, and while just about everything else could go wrong with the country, we have all the political buffoons sitting around each trying to figure out how they can obtain more power. I am tired of all of it and the suffering that these negotiating failures are bringing to the country as a whole. We need to stop this nonsense of flying all these politicians from country to country where they enjoy the local hotels and hospitality and implement a solution immediately.
About the only thing that I can think of as a solution is one that the Malagasy choose for themselves, which logistically would be very difficult… but would be the only acceptable way since negotiations with all former presidents is nothing but a power struggle. Since the government in Madagascar is more or less non-existent, we should just ramp up elections to happen in less than 6 months if possible. We cannot trust the army, the politicians or any transitional government… so this I think would be the only acceptable way out of this mess. Give all interested political parties a short time to communicate what they would do for the country and then put it to a heavily monitored vote… at least this way the Malagasy could choose the mess they are in rather than it being thrust upon them such as it was by Rajoelina.
If we continue on the path we are on, nothing will ever be achieved. And the longer we continue to ‘negotiate’ the worse it becomes for all Malagasy.
There have been a great deal of changes that have happened in the last 6 days and a lot of them leave me scratching my head. Basically on October 1st, we left off with threats of not allowing mediators back into Madagascar and that Madagascar would remove itself from the SADC. Since then, we have had:
There was a poll, where Roindefo says that 80% of the Malagasy people favour the new government. (Le Courier)
Roindefo states that the Maputo accord is not viable. (Reuters)
HAT government accused of profiting from the illegal logging of rosewood. (Reuters)
Rajoelina gives an address to the Malagasy people stating that he is going to follow Maputo and appoint a new PM in hopes to provide Madagascar with a president by the 50th anniversary of independence. (AFP: Google)
International powers stated that they do not support the power grab and that Rajoelina’s demands made no sense suggesting that they give him money or he won’t hold elections. (Reuters)
Rajoelina and Roindefo receive a suprise visit from a delegation of 40 people from the army to request that they take action to resolve the crisis urgently and they do so to avoid disorders. (Clicanoo – Reunion) and (Xinhua).
At a meeting at the Carlton in Tana, the 3 missing posts from the Maputo accord have been filled by Andry Rajoelina (President) Emmanuel Rakotovahiny (Vice President – Albert Zafy) Eugene Mangalaza (Prime Minister – Didier Ratsiraka). (Globe and Mail)
Is your head spinning? Mine is. How on earth did we go from having Rajoelina on a power trip to the UN to gain international recognition to Rajoelina actually becoming president and fulfilling the Maputo accord??? Something is definitely fishy about everything that has transpired in recent days, but I will be damned if I can put my finger on it.
Here are some of the things that I think may have contributed to the abrupt change in direction:
France intervened.
The army threatened.
Money
Monja Roindefo abandoned?
I am really having a hard time swallowing that Rajoelina would just accept the Maputo accord out of nowhere because he and Monja have been (at least up to this point) inseparable. At almost every turn in the past, you would see Rajoelina defend Roindefo and vice versa and on any political statement, they just seemed to be in sync.
But ever since ‘the incident’ at the UN, it seems as though Rajoelina has left Monja on his own. You can see from the articles on the first 2 points (above) and from my previous post that Monja seems to be towing the traditional party line by stating that everyone is happy with the status quo, threatening mediator visas, threatening to pull out of the SADC and finally stating that the Maputo accord is not viable.
But on the same day after Roindefo’s statements about the Maputo accord, Rajoelina makes the announcement that he is ready to honor the accord an appoint a PM and a VP from the various opposition parties.
How could Monja make all those statements and know that Rajoelina was going to say that? Clearly, the intent there is to dispose of him as PM… so this must have sideswiped Monja completely.
To prove it, here is Monja’s response to what occurred at the meeting on October 6th pretty must says it all:
This is the part that doesn’t add up to me. Everything was going the regular TGV way, spreading rumours and misinformation all while trying to gain international recognition. Which is what they were trying to do when they showed up at the UN knowing full well that they are not recognized as the legal government… so why show up if not for the chance to gain international recognition for the government (or at least lie about it) and why try this stunt if you have any intention of accepting Maputo?
The UN general assembly was in late September (25/26) and it was reported that before going home Rajoelina was received in the Elysee Palace by Nicolas Sarkozy on September 28th
Then basically there was no news until Rajoelina’s announcement on October 4th.
So how did we go from trying to gain international acceptance (to avoid accepting Maputo) to accepting the conditions of Maputo? It was like a complete shift in mentality from wanting to keep the current government as the transitional head to accepting the August negotiations? It’s really too bad that there was no information from his meeting in Paris and also too bad that the reports that did leak out were later denied.
Army Threats?
Now whether or not the Paris trip happened, it is true that at some point on October 4th that some delegates from the army had visited Rajoelina:
So the army had stopped by for a little visit with Rajoelina and Roindefo, but whatever for? There have always been rumours surrounding the army and their various positions… but what could make a delegation come to the then heads of the HAT government and have a 2 hour meeting?
If you as me, the only reason that a delegation would come and have a 2 hour meeting with the current government is to express dissatisfaction or a present a problem. There was never any information leaked from that meeting, but I bet that it was either dissatisfaction or a problem that caused the impromptu visit.
Money?
Perhaps it was money that pushed everything over the top. With all of the sanctions imposed on Madagascar, I am surprised that the government has been able to last this long. Ever since Rajoelina overthrew Ravalomanana all you have seen in the news is how much worse it is getting for the average Malagasy person (tourism, loss of TIKO and food shortages.. etc) and how much the Malagasy Ariary has been depreciating in value. And now, if the recent accusations hold true, they have allowed the illegal logging to flourish because all they are doing about it is taxing the exports to other countries.
If they are turning a blind eye to the lawless logging that has been going on (but taxing exports), then government must be desperate for income… which might just explain why Rajoelina was so desperate to address the UN and gain international recognition (not that I believe he could). Could money have been the reason for the abrupt change in direction for Rajoelina? I am certain that it definitely played a part… but I don’t think it is the catalyst.
Future of Madagascar
Well whatever happened to cause Andry Rajoelina to agree to the Maputo accord is a good thing because Madagascar was going nowhere fast with the HAT’s plan of avoiding Maputo and continuing to pretend that they govern Madagascar. Though it will never make sense that Albert Zafy and Didier Ratsiraka were included in the crisis negotiations, nor that Marc Ravalomanana’s party doesn’t seem to have any representation in the transitional government or even that Andry Rajoelina is leading the transitional government… at least we are moving some where and not stuck in the political quagmire we had been for so long.
But even with this progress have some really uneasy feelings:
Why and how did this sudden transition happen? I think I need this to be answered because I think we all need to know the reason, or who is behind the sudden change of heart. There is no doubt a reason behind it, but whose reason is it and how does it serve them?
Why is there no representation from Ravalomanana’s party? Though there may be some representation in some lower positions (I don’t know for sure), I find it disturbing that Ravalomanana’s party has not been given a power position. It makes me feel as though Andry Rajoelina has won somehow (he is now the president, Ravalomanana or his party really have no presence in the government). If the negotiations where to be between the 2 conflicting parties… how is it that 1 of the 2 parties is seemingly left out?
Didier Ratsiraka and Rajoelina: In some of the above articles it states that Ratsiraka and Rajoelina met in France. Also at the very beginning of the crisis there was some speculation that Ratsiraka was really behind the whole coup to extract his revenge on Ravalomanana for overthrowing his government in 2002. Now, Ratsiraka has influential power over the transitional government through his PM delegate and now that Rajoelina is not allowed to run for president in the next election… who is to say that Ratsiraka won’t? And if he does, he could easily appoint Rajoelina as PM if he did win… I don’t want to float conspiracies… but it seems that everyone but Ravalomanana is getting what they want, could this end up being the sweetest revenge?
I have this feeling that we are going to see this government stay intact until the elections are organized before we are going to see anything extremely newsworthy. Until then, the news in Madagascar is probably going to be dry with the occassional rumour for Ravalomanana or Roindefo.
So let’s hope that when the elections come that the combined forces of Ratsiraka and Rajoelina don’t try to rig the elections to continue to have their way. I hope that we can see many contenders for the presidency (hopefully some not related to any of these parties) so that the people of Madagascar can have a choice and not be forced or coerced into having the president that Rajoelina/Ratsiraka think they should have.
I have been meaning to blog and have had a few drafts, but I thought I would scrap that and write a new one today while I have a few moments. I have been really busy over the past couple of weeks and haven’t been able to find the time to eek out a post or update any of the timeline pages.
Anyhow… a lot has happened since the last time I blogged, but I can’t really say that it is anything suprising… here is a rundown of the stuff that has happened since September 1st:
Rajoelina holds a mini-referendum at Mahamasima to ‘pretend’ to consult his people on the next steps since Maputo had ended.
The opposition (Ratsiraka, Rajoelina, Zafy) called on the army to break the deadlock and form an interum government.
Army refuses political role.
Monja Roindefo charged with creating a ‘unity’ government (by himself) in 72 hours by Rajoelina.
The opposition & SADC reject the new government
Protests begin on September 11th & 12th and are met with arrests and tear gas
The HAT starts to arrest opposition supporters
Rajoelina feels ‘betrayed’ by the international community
Rumours:
The HAT obtains support from Libya military for rural areas and possible donations.
Army give Roindefo 24hrs to resign.
Rajoelina was invited to the UN General Assembly on climate change
Rajoelina goes to NYC to attend UN summit
Rajoelina goes to Paris where he is accompanied by French diplomates
Rajoelina to give climate change address to UN and plagiraises the VPM of luxemburg
Rajoelina denied not once, but twice at the UN general assembly
Now HAT is threatening to deny visas to mediators unless a HAT satisfactory explanation occurs
Madagascar says to withdraw from SADC
Obviously there has been a complete reversal in anything gained by the Maputo accord, and the HAT is back up to their usual tricks of trying to misinform and trick people into giving them what they want. Let’s start at the top:
So everything was going well with Maputo, we had some concessions made and some crimes forgiven… everything looked promising and everyone including myself thought that the crisis may finally be on its way to being over. We were all so convinced of this that we didn’t even think of what would happen at the next when Maputo II was scheduled to choose who would be the transitional leaders that would lead Madagascar back into a legitimate elected government.
So at Maputo II the negotiations began over the period of a few days to decide who would lead the ‘transition’ and naturally Rajoelina would insist that he be the leader of the transition, a position that he feels is his alone… why didn’t we see that coming? So a few days later the talks were at a complete standstill and eventually broke off under the auspice that Rajoelina and the others would take some time to deliberate on who should lead the transition.
Of course, not to miss any opportunity to make it into the headlines and to look as though he cares, Rajoelina holds a mini-referendum at Mahamasima stadium to consult the ‘Forces of Change’ to ‘ask’ them if he should lead the next transitional government. This of course is more or less a rhetorical question as we all know that Rajoelina already had the answer to that question long before he ever organized this ‘referendum’.
After the Maputo peace talks had broken off and talks slowly began to fail, the 3 former presidents: Marc Ravalomanana, Didier Ratsiraka and Albert Zafy create an unofficial united opposition to Rajoelina and the HAT. Fully expecting the outcome of the referendum and knowing how Rajoelina is, they decide that it would be best if the military just took the reigns of power and broke the deadlock that was occurring in the presidential power struggle. Albert Zafy seems to completely understand where these negotiations are going and offers this quote:
“It is now the military to take responsibility. For us, this is the only solution because the civilian side (…), it did not happen to resolve the situation, “he told reporters the former president Albert Zafy.
“They (the military) can impose their point of view (…) because it is the military who gave the power to Andry Rajoelina. So they may well decide and influence Mr. Rajoelina “said Zafy.
Though it is true that there is virtually nothing aside from a complete military takeover that will change things, the request sadly falls on deaf ears as those who placed Rajoelina into power are quite content to keep him there.
After all the struggle that was had placing Rajoelina into power, did anyone seriously think that they would entertain a thought about what was good for Madagascar and assume control? Of course not, is that a question that can really be asked? The military is seeing more action then they have seen in a long time and received bonus wages from the government (among other things that have been seen around the net). They just came back to the opposition with the typical good guy answer stating that they don’t want to be involved in politics and want to remain neutral… only, they are a bit late on that choice ever since they had sided and continue to side with Rajoelina.
Military police head General Claude Ravalomanana said in a statement that the armed forces had no role to play in politics and would not risk creating internal rifts.
“We are categorically against the establishment of a military government,” he told several hundred officers.
“We urge the politicians to find a solution so that the transition can establish a fourth republic.”
Military police head General Claude Ravalomanana said in a statement that the armed forces had no role to play in politics and would not risk creating internal rifts.
“We are categorically against the establishment of a military government,” he told several hundred officers.
“We urge the politicians to find a solution so that the transition can establish a fourth republic.”
Well it is too late for the rifts General Ravalomanana they have been there ever since the take over and still exist to this day, you are just lucky nothing has happened so far.
Since talks have completely stalled and it would seem that no one can agree on anything, Andry Rajoelina takes it upon himself to solve this problem by creating a ‘unity’ government without any involvement from the other former presidents. He charges his PM Monja Roindefo to create a unity government within 72 hours to solve the current stand still.
Is it just me, or does it seem that Rajoelina (and perhaps the HAT) do not think things through completely before executing them? Clearly the other 3 ex-presidents are not going to accept the new government since they were not a part of its creation and obviously the rest of the world won’t accept the new government for the same reasons. There was absolutely nothing to be gained by creating this unity government as it was something that was doomed to failure from the very start. This is just one of many ‘stunts’ (the Maputo accord being another) that Rajoelina pulls to obtain media attention and it would seem to make someone (perhaps the forces of change?) believe that he was truly trying to solve all of Madagascar’s problems. Rajoelina only wants 3 things:
To lead the transition to the next republic of Madagascar and into the next government of Madagascar (which will, if he was ever successful in leading a transition, probably be his government).
International recognition as the president of Madagascar.
To keep himself in the news.
Of course there is the power, money and fame… but almost everything that Rajoelina does seems to revolve around those 2 things. So clearly, forming this ‘unity’ government all alone is some sort of absurd attempt at trying to look as though he is ‘doing something for Madagascar’ and a way to garner media attention.
“I give instruction to Prime Minister Monja Roindefo to form an open government of national unity with 72 hours,” Rajoelina said in a statement.
He said his government would set up all the institutions that were agreed under the terms of an initial power-sharing deal reached in Maputo in early August.
Yup… ‘his’ government would obviously include himself and Monja to lead the government and if they were lucky some elements of the opposition parties, albeit most likely in lowly positions. It would actually be quite funny if he seriously did believe that this was agreed to in the Maputo power sharing deal.
Needless to say, the idea was categorically rejected. First, by the opposition, who were not too pleased that Rajoelina had taken it upon himself to conjure his non-unity government.
“Of course we will not participate in this government. We reject it,” Emmanuel Rakotovahiny, a senior member of former President Albert Zafy’s delegation, told Reuters.
“The country is moving towards a dangerous situation where there may never be peace,” he added.
“Following the declaration of Andry Rajoelina, who has flagrantly contradicted what was agreed at Maputo … the Ratsiraka movement, and all those who support it, reject this decision of Mr Rajoelina,” the statement signed by Ange Andrianarisoa, head of the Ratsiraka delegation, said.
Second, by the SADC who also did not like the unilateral action taken by Andry Rajoelina.
Joaquim Chissano, Mozambique’s former president who is mediating in the island’s crisis, said Southern African leaders meeting in Democratic Republic of Congo on Tuesday had rejected “the unilateral decision taken in Madagascar”.
“We will continue to negotiate to find a consensual solution. The current (Southern African Development Community) suspension will remain in place until they find a consensual and inclusive solution to the problem,” he said.
Analysts said the government was unlikely to end the crisis, even if the balance of power currently lay with Rajoelina.
“Everybody agrees there must be negotiations as neither side can really go forward without the other. Rajoelina needs the donors back and the opposition wants to be back (in power), said Lille-based political risk consultant Lydie Boka.
Of course the HAT rigorously defends the new government, maintaining that it is inclusive even though they hand picked people for every position.
Roindefo defended the new government, which included several people until recently closely associated with Ravalomanana.
“The new government is not for one party alone. It is for everyone. For me, all four movements are represented,” he said in a televised statement.
Rajemison Rakotomahro and Jacques Sylla, former heads of the upper and lower houses of parliament respectively during the Ravalomanana era, took up the posts of the transition’s vice president and president of the transition’s congress.
That’s right, ‘until recently’ was associated with Ravalomanana… before they sided with the HAT. No doubt their government was full of people that were ‘formerly’ associated with their respective movements.
Since Rajoelina is so blatantly violating the spirit of Maputo by creating this unilateral government of his, the only recourse for the opposition parties is to return to the streets and protest against it (which they had stopped previously as a condition of the Maputo agreement).
So the opposition calls for the people to stand up and boycott the new so called ‘unity’ government and return to the streets as the legalists have been doing since Rajoelina took power. I don’t think it is a surprise to anyone that the protesters were greeted with confrontation and tear gas from the police/army.
Backers of ousted President Marc Ravalomanana massed in a park near a central square, but security forces moved in saying the demonstration had not been authorized.
Raharinaivo Andrianantoandro, spokesperson for Ravalomanana’s party, said they had wanted to demonstrate peacefully to condemn Rajoelina’s appointment of a new government this week and to convince the ruling authorities to resume crisis talks.
“But the security forces stopped us,” he told Reuters, adding that he was not aware of any arrests or injuries.
Ah yes… the old, “You were not authorized to protest” excuse, as if a protest against a government must first be approved by that same government… how ludicrous!
Well regardless of how absurd the HAT’s reasoning is, they would greet any protest that occurred with confrontation and tear gas. It is amazing how much of a difference 8 months makes isn’t it? It was just like yesterday when Rajoelina had a movement that was protesting the Ravalomanana government, though with quite a lot less tear gas and military involved.
And because the HAT is all for openness and transparency, they begin to go after opposition leaders and begin to throw them in jail. They start with Senator Naika Eliane following up with Raharinaivo Randrianatoandro, drumming up some clearly fake charges to take them off to prison.
Raharinaivo Randrianatoandro is the second leader of the movement Ravalomanana be thrown in jail since Friday, September 11 after Senator Naika Eliane has been in custody at the prison Manjakandriana. Other arrests are expected.
On top of this there were reported injuries and protester arrests as well.
Now that it is quite clear that no one but the HAT wants their newly created unilateral ‘unity’ government, Rajoelina cries foul to get himself back into the headlines.
“Rajoelina feels betrayed by the International Contact Group (ICG),” Roindefo said late on Tuesday in a televised debate with the head of ousted leader Marc Ravalomanana’s movement.
“The president and the prime minister of the transition reflect the national will. The ICG then created these other parties. If we are not careful, we will end up like Somalia with warlords,” he said.
At least now Roindefo and Rajoelina are stating the truth of the matter by stating that the president and PM of the transition reflect the national will (aka the HAT’s will). It does make you wonder how someone can say something like that with a straight face doesn’t it? Months of protests from 10’s of thousands of people, growing opposition from across the country and Roindefo can actually manage to say that they represent the ‘nations will’…. please.
I think Fetison Andrianirina’s statement best describes the HAT’s double standard of using the Maputo accord to condemn the opposition, but at the same time not respecting it when they created their unilateral government.
“You brandish the Maputo charter when you feel it suits you, for example, in creating a government. But you fail to respect the agreement’s terms when it comes to setting up the agreed institutions,” Andrianirina said.
Roindefo then goes to the Malagasy High Consitutional Court for interpretation of the Maputo accord, apparently finding it unbelievable that people aren’t interpreting the agreement the way the HAT as no one is accepting his new ‘unity’ government.
Despite all of the nonsense from the HAT, the unusual alliance between Ratsiraka, Zafy and Ravalomanana continues with all of the involved parties wishing to reach the consensual government defined within the Maputo accord.
While all of the bickering was taking place over the unity government there were 2 articles of news that had come up and had gone away as quickly as they had came.
One of these rumours was that Madagascar had somehow procured from Libya 3 MI8 helicopters and 1 military transport plane. This was rumoured to be a donation to help them fight dahalo (highwaymen) who I have actually heard are becoming an increasing problem on Madagascar’s highways.
The second rumour was that the army had proposed a 72 hour deadline for Monja Roindefo to step down as PM. According to the military (in the Les-Nouvelles article) they wanted Monja to step down so that an officer they have selected can succeed him. This didn’t make any sense to me because:
The military have been quite happy where they are.
Rajoelina has gone out of his way to retain Monja, this is why the broke off the Maputo talks.
If the military are going to be a part of the government, wouldn’t they just completely take over government? Why just follow orders from Rajoelina if they are in government? They are already doing that without being part of it.
At any rate, 72 hours passed along and Monja Roindefo was just fine, remaining the PM of the HAT.
AND NOW FOR THE INTERESTING PART….
After all the talk and bickering about the unity government and Maputo, Rajoelina was actually invited by the UN to the UN General Assembly on climate change. This could have been huge for Rajoelina in terms of his desire to obtain international recognition, or at least, some form of it.
Rather than being wise and abstaining from talking at the UN general assembly and simply going back to Madagascar stating he was invited to the assembly as the ‘leader’ of Madagascar, he insists that he give a speech to the assembly. And this is where karma catches up with Rajoelina as not only it was found that many key elements of his address were copied from an address made by the VPM of Luxembourg, but he inadvertently created one of the biggest controversies ever witnessed at the UN!
His first problem with plagiarism started when people had received a copy of the address he intended to give to the UN. A malagasy blogger read through it and had noticed that it looked remarkably like a speech that the VPM of Luxembourg had given 3 years ago, here is how the blog compares the speeches:
Rajoelina’s Speech:
“In unison with other developing countries, Madagascar would like to reiterate that the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities (Principle 7 of Rio) and equity are the cornerstones that must guide international cooperation on changes Climate. We must recognize that environmental degradation, depletion of natural resources and character – now inevitable – change
Climate representing an obstacle or an obstacle to achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and may negate the positive trends observed in some developing countries, provided that the environmental quality remains an integral factor essential to ensure sustainable economic and social harmonious long term.
It is therefore urgent to act quickly, effectively and collectively. Indeed, the fight against climate change and environmental degradation must be understood in the international framework set by Agenda 21, the Plan of Implementation of the World Summit on Sustainable Development, the United Nations Convention on the Fight against Desertification, the Convention United Nations Framework on Climate Change, the Convention on Biological Diversity and the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).
It is especially necessary to take into account that developing countries are particularly vulnerable to threats posed by climate change on economic and social development, since their economies are often more dependent on environmental resources and they not have as many resources as developed countries to pursue policies to adapt to climate change. “
Jean Asselborn VPM Luxembourg on Sept 24, 2007 (FR):
“The environmental degradation, depletion of natural resources and character – now inevitable – climate change represent a barrier but a barrier to achieving the Millennium Development Goals and may negate the positive trends observed in many developing countries. The quality of the environment is also essential to ensure sustainable economic and social harmonious long term.
It is therefore urgent to act quickly and collectively. Indeed, the fight against climate change and environmental degradation must be viewed collectively in the international framework set by Agenda 21, the Plan of Implementation of the World Summit on Sustainable Development, the United Nations Convention on the Fight against Desertification, the Convention United Nations Framework on Climate Change, the Convention on Biological Diversity and the Millennium Development Goals.
It is especially necessary to take into account that developing countries are particularly vulnerable to threats posed by climate change on economic and social development, since their economies are often more dependent on environmental resources and they not have as many resources as developed countries to pursue policies to adapt to climate change. “
The blog can be found here in Malagasy and you can take the comparison whatever way you like as there was really no other coverage of this aside from the Malagasy bloggers entry so it could be completely false for all I know. If you wish to compare, I have found Rajoelina’s speech in english hosted here (PDF) on the UN site as well as is taped address below. I have also found the VPM of Luxembourg’s speech here at their government site.
Now this is really detracting from the biggest story of all, which is that UN members had voted to prevent Andry Rajoelina from addressing the UN because he was not the legitimate leader of Madagascar. Below are some of the headlines:
Andry Rajoelina was supposed to make his speech on September 25th, 2009, but SADC members had strongly opposed allowing him to speak as he was not the legitimate leader of Madagascar. So strongly in fact, they forced the poor Ali Abdessalam Treki to put it to a vote and even though a VERY large percentage of the UN membership did not vote, there were 23 members opposing his speech and 4 members for his speech, so the speech did not happen.
In a rare intervention in the Assembly hall, the foreign minister of the Democratic Republic of Congo, Alexis Mwamba, representing SADC, protested allowing Mr. Rajoelina to speak. “SADC would like to express its protest against the decision to invite Mr. Andry Rajoelina to take the floor at the general debate of our august assembly,” he said.
He insisted the matter be voted on under the rules of procedure and the assembly decided Mr. Rajoelina should be deferred from taking the floor. But confusion reigned both during and after the vote, and it remained unclear whether the decision was the final word on the matter.
Ali Abdessalam Treki insists that he was only following the ‘rules’ when granting permission for Rajoelina to address the UN assembly. But it now appears that there is a movement afoot because of this to prevent any illegal government official from ever addressing the UN. Now Nambia is pushing the UN to take a ‘hard line’ against coup d’etats:
Speaking on the fifth day of the high-level debate, Marco Hausiku said the 192-member General Assembly should “urgently pass a resolution” that prohibits unelected regimes from participating in UN activities.
“There is a need for the UN to support the AU [African Union] principle position of not recognizing governments that come to power through military coups,” he said.
I totally agree with the idea and it really makes me wonder why this hasn’t happened sooner? Clearly Rajoelina fully intended on using his address to the UN to ‘legitimize’ himself to the world, so why would the UN have allowed this to take place if not for the SADC objection? There should be no recognition and no invitation for those member states that come to power illegally through any method, and I certainly hope that they adopt this stance.
Now that Andry Rajoelina and the HAT have been so immensely humiliated they are now responding to the embarassment by threatening to deny visas to mediators and even more intensely cracking down on demonstrations against their government.
Madagascar said on Tuesday it may refuse visas to officials from the Southern African Development Community after African nations blocked the island’s leader from addressing the U.N. General Assembly last week.
Prime Minister Monja Roindefo told Reuters he had sent letters to SADC member states represented on the Indian Ocean island to demand an explanation, as well as a letter of protest to the U.N. headquarters.
“For now, we will leave it at that. Further actions (regarding visas) will depend on the responses we receive to our demands for an explanation,” Roindefo said.
Doesn’t this ‘pretend’ sincerity by the HAT get under your skin? It drives me crazy to think that the HAT was even invited go to the UN Assembly in the first place. How can the HAT seriously be surprised that anyone would protest their address to the UN? They know they are illegitimate, it is exactly why they showed up to the UN meeting in the first place! How would anyone seriously want to allow an illegal government to use the UN as a tool to bolster the credibility of it’s international recognition? The invite shouldn’t have happened, and this is something that should have been addressed long ago with the UN.
So Andry Rajoelina and Monja Roindefo are in the process of throwing a fit of protest against everyone involved in blocking their speech to the UN. They are furious that anyone would think of blocking their chance at bolstering their international recognition, but mostly they are furious that their plan couldn’t have back fired worse than it did.
I have heard it mentioned on the net, and I completely agree that if they wanted to succeed in bolstering their recognition they should have just shown up and kept their mouths shut. They could have just walked away from the general assembly telling the world and anyone who wants to hear that they are now recognized because the UN invited them to an assembly, and it would be up to the UN to correct that error. But instead, they got greedy and pleaded with Ali Abdessalam Treki to let Rajoelina speak despite the process which in the end will cement a piece of the HAT in history. Of course the HAT won’t be remembered as the transitional government that lead Madagascar to it’s 4th republic, but rather as the illegitimate government that caused an uproar at the UN and most likely will result in new measures passed not to allow illegal governments to attend or participate in UN functions.
There is not much more for the HAT to do but complain to the world how offended they are about what had happened in the UN. Well… not much more than making empty threats! I almost can’t contain my laughter.
So, now they are going to prevent SADC members from entering Madagascar (not that they need to hold negotiations there)… but now they are going to withdraw from the SADC? You are kidding right? Madagascar was thrown out of the SADC shortly after the coup d’etat occurred!
Government actions on the granting of visas to SADC members, scheduled to arrive in Antananarivo on Oct. 6 for the International Contact Group meeting, will be specified depending on the response to these requests for explanation, said Roindefo.
Roindefo’s decision followed the declaration of two dozens of political parties allied to the HTA, proposing the withdrawal of Madagascar from the SADC, which Rajoelina’s supporters consider as “non-compliance of Madagascar’s sovereignty.”
Of course they are non-compliant with the HAT’s sovereignty! Nobody wants to side with the HAT. Don’t worry about your proposal, Madagascar will be out of the SADC until such a time as there is a legitimate leader, who I am sure will want to take part in the SADC once again.
Now there is no chance that the HAT will ever gain international recognition and possibly no way that he will ever lead a transitional government. They cannot do anything more but to hold all of Madagascar hostage until there is either a SADC military intervention or the 4 leaders come to an agreement. Which one do you think will happen first?
Update 09/02/09: Here is a link to short interview with Gen Edmond
Going through the news today I stumble across some stuff that could lead to something interesting if it turns out to be true. I was perusing the internet today and stumbled upon this article from Midi Madigasikara regarding General Edmond Rasolomahandry. Apparently he was mere moments away from boarding a flight back to Madagascar (having checked his bags and such) when he received a long phone call the article presumes from someone in Madagascar. After the phone call, he decides not to board the flight and chooses instead to stay in Maputo.
As it turns out… whoever called General Edmond sure did save him a lot of trouble as Crazy Commander Charles Lylison was in Ivato on Aug 28 awaiting someone with his FIS. The article below from the Madagascar Tribune.com (roughly translated) states that he was there because of comments made by Manandafy Rakotonirina:
On the 28th, I thought to myself that Manandafy cannot catch a break with this Commander Charles fellow as we can all remember his comments (basically saying “You’re mine” among other things) when he was arrested by him and the infamous arrest photo:
I did think it was rather ‘crazy’ that Charles would go to an airport with his special forces to wait for a 71 year old man to come back because of some disrespectful comments that he may have made towards the Malagasy army and subsequently even more crazy that he should go to court over them.
Now if the article from Midi is true, and this General Edmond did stay in Maputo at the last minute because of what was waiting in Maputo, things could get interesting. If anything it is because he is the only military figure that has been speaking against the ‘military declaration’ that was made by the HAT to stop Ravalomanana from returning to Madagascar. But it could also be because there are elements of the military that do not agree with how the military is currently politically divided and that this element of the military are starting to become fed up with the state of the military /country as it stands today.
I have heard (but don’t have time to reference anything) around the internet that there have been various secret meetings between military types and rumours that the military were planning a takeover while Rajoelina was in Maputo, but had backed down. I am inclined to think that since there are so many rumours out now regarding the military that there at least has to be some truth to them, the Midi article almost does that itself. Why else would someone who was destined for Madagascar and had already checked their bags, abruptly stay, if not to avoid problems? It doesn’t make any sense otherwise. And when have we ever heard a military figure speak out against the commandments of the HAT? Never. So… it makes more sense that the FIS was at the airport for General Edmond than it was for them to be there for some offhand comments made by Manandafy.
And if all of this ends up to be true, then it leads you to believe that there is something going on internally within the military and wonder when you are going to see it. I will be keeping my eyes peeled for more stories coming up for General Edmond and try and dig up some information on secret military talks… but if there should be more articles arriving on what has happened to General Edmond… I think you can be sure that something is going on in the back ground that we don’t know about.
I am sure that it was no big surprise that the negotiations in Maputo for the second part of the Maputo accord would end in failure, especially since you are asking 4 people that have been and would like to be president again. Though all the involved parties agreed that they would decide who would lead the transition by September 4th, I don’t think there is anyone that can be truly hopeful that anything will be resolved by September 4th, especially since they all have their own ideas as to how this transition should be run.
Les Nouvelles had a nice list of the proposals from each of the 4 parties:
The odd thing that I have noticed about the negotiations is that it would seem that Ratsiraka and Ravalomanana are almost allies, despite the fallout of the political issue occurring in 2002. In the Les Nouvelles article above, it would seem that Ravalomanana would not have a problem accepting Ratsiraka’s proposal. Also in the La Verite article below, they are both in agreement that if Rajoelina were to lead the transition, it would be nothing more than legitimizing Rajoelina’s coup d’etat:
It almost appears as though it is Ravalomanana/Ratsiraka vs. Rajoelina/Zafy doesn’t it? I am not quite sure why Zafy is siding with Rajoelina for him to lead the transition, but then, nobody really knows why Zafy was involved and what he and his party stood for… and apparently that is to see the TGV succeed in their coup d’etat. At least all the lines are drawn in the sand and we can almost say that we know the stance of each of the 4 parties.
But does it matter? No. It is going to take some sort of disaster to force Rajoelina to agree to having someone else other than himself to head the transition. And from the sounds of it, that point has not been reached and he will continue to go to all negotiations (only to delay sanctions/problems for his government) thinking that only he can lead the transition… which is the heart of the problem.
All negotiations will continue to fail so long as Rajoelina is thinking that he is the man to lead Madagascar out of its current crisis. Does it make sense that the cause of the crisis should be leading and shaping the resolution to the crisis? Not really. I, and many others have said before, there should be a neutral party heading the transition until legitimate elections can be held to let the people decide who should be leading their country. But so long as Rajoelina continues to run the country, and negotiations call for a person to lead the transitional government… this crisis will never end, unless of course the previously mentioned disaster happens.
That disaster may be the effect of the sactions that (rumour has it) are going to be discussed by the SADC on September 6th and 7th. But even if sanctions are discussed at the SADC meeting, it’s not like we would see instantaneous results… after all, we are talking about a group of politicians in a country other than Madagascar deciding what to do. I don’t think you would see any santions (if they even happen) for at least 1 to 2 months.
And on top of it all… EVEN if Rajoelina was to cave into the demands of the negotiators demands, there is every indication (via various articles/posts) that the military would not respect any agreement reached that does not benefit them. Recently Crazy Commander Charles has stormed the Ivato airport looking for Ravalomanana’s prime minister Manandafy Rakotonirina for saying (and I am not completely sure) something to the effect of “The soldiers of the SADC cannot/should not contain malagasy soldiers”. You can find the article here courtesy of the Madagascar Tribune. In the same article he also threatens the negotiator president Joachim Chissano that he will do something if he sets foot in Madagascar, and that Manandafy should be taken to court for disgracing the Malagasy army.
So it is almost as if Rajoelina doesn’t have any choice… perhaps, as speculated the Malagasy army is really in control of things. So I wouldn’t be holding my breath on seeing any results on September 4th, you will most likely see some grand standing, but not much else. So long as Rajoelina wants to head the transition, Ravalomanana will oppose it, and this will most likely end or stall on negotiations now and going forward.
Boy it has been a while since I have posted anything, sorry about that, but it is difficult to blog when you are on vacation.
So not even a week goes by and the charter that was signed in Maputo is in jeopardy from both Andry Rajoelina and the Malagasy Army. Should we be surprised?
I was watching the news roll by while on vacation and got to thinking that we have all been putting too much blind hope into the Maputo accord. We have been waiting patiently for almost 9 long months now to have the political issues resolved so that Madagascar can return to normal and perhaps lost sight on who we are dealing with… Andry Rajoelina.
If you look at everything that has been happening over the past little while, keep in mind that you are dealing with Andry Rajoelina… then lose some hope, you would have clearly seen the Maputo Accord negotiations are really just Andry Rajoelina’s plan of legitimizing his claims to power and/or stalling talks. It was right there in front of our eyes for the longest time and I am surprised that we didn’t pick up on this sooner.
If you put everything together it makes perfect sense:
So while we were all hopeful that the Maputo accord was the nail in the coffin of this crisis, Andry Rajoelina says this when returning to Madagascar after the initial talks (before they work out who will be leading the transitional government):
And this is all just from a single interview! It is very clear from the above 3 quotes that the HAT has absolutely no intention of allowing anyone else to lead the transitional government. On top of this, we found out a day or so before Andry Rajoelina’s interview that the Malagasy army has no intentions of allowing this either by rejecting the stipulation of the accord that states the army should be ‘depoliticized’:
In a statement signed by the armed forces minister, Colonel Noel Rakotonandrasana, and by the chiefs of staff of the army and the paramilitary gendarmerie force, the soldiers “categorically rejected (a provision) for the creation of a think tank on defence and national security (CRDSN).”
So it appears that we are heading directly for another failed negotiation, unless of course the mediators somehow come to an agreement that Andry Rajoelina should lead the transition. Hopefully they are not in a hurry to write the Malagasy crisis of 2009 off and do something crazy like that, but if they do, they would be handing Andry Rajeolina everything he wants. I would almost guarantee that if this were to happen that the transition would either be postponed or rigged so that Andry Rajeolina could continue his illegal rule of the country.
If you ask me, what needs to happen is that none of the 4 leaders are to lead the transitional government of the country and we need to balance the power among those involved in the crisis until an election can happen. There are just too many people that have their own agenda and interests that will not serve Madagascar well.
But what will end up happening, and what almost everyone is hinting at now is that there are doubts that a continuation on the Maputo accord talks will even occur:
So the second round of talks will be the all or nothing deal that Andry Rajoelina wants. I am sure that he will attend, but upon the instant that he is not nominated to be the leader of the transition, the HAT walks from the table. The case for this has been made perfectly clear in quotes from the 3 articles above. As much as I would have liked to say that the end is near for the crisis, I don’t think we are even close to having this crisis resolved at all.
Now that I have had some time to reflect on the accord, I am starting to think that Marc Ravalomanana does not stand a chance at returning to Madagascar or participating in the upcoming elections. The feeling that I am getting from the blogosphere is that Marc Ravalomanana (because he is the former president) would be the biggest risk to the HAT government and therefore would be blocked by the HAT by any means necessary.
In almost every report of the agreement to the Maputo accord you see this quote (or something similar):
“In the interests of the nation, and following consultations, it seems reasonable to me to not participate personally,” he said.
But he added that he would return to Madagascar, where he would be granted an amnesty from a conviction for abuse of power handed down in June. He was also fined $70m by the court in Antananarivo.
In addition to this, I remember seeing in an article (that I cannot find at the moment) that Marc Ravalomanana was only going to return to Madagascar when it is deemed ‘safe’ to do so. So when exactly would it be ‘safe’ to do so?
Certainly that is not going to be until the elections are held in 15 months, and even then depending on the results of the election it still may not be safe (if either Rajoelina or Ratsiraka wins). The first thing that will happen when he even sets foot in the country will be a brand new charge that will come out of nowhere inevitably leading to a indefinite sentence.
If this was before the election, there would be no doubt that Marc Ravalomanana would not be able to participate being a criminal from all these new charges. If he chooses to run for president, he would be dependent on his party members in Madagascar to run his campaign as he could not be physically there to participate. So… the campaign would rely mostly on people loyal to him, since there would be no ‘face time’, it would present some difficulties in campaigning.
The HAT will be pulling out all of the stops if we actually make it past Maputo II (the second round of talks to determine the president… etc) to ensure that Marc Ravalomanana is not a part of the upcoming elections. If we don’t make it past Maputo II, then just look for the next news article stating who the next negotiator will be… and chalk Maputo up to be another failure.
As much as I thought that the crisis would last forever, it seems that a mediator has finally brought in an agreement that all parties could agree on. There isn’t a lot of information on this really, but here are the main points of most of the articles:
A transitional period of 15 months
Legislative and presidential elections will be held during the transition, monitored by international observers
Marc Ravalomanana does not participate in the transitional government (though his party will)
Amnesty will be granted for both Ravalomanana and Ratsiraka allowing them both to return to Madagascar
There hasn’t really been any other details of the accord revealed, but I am sure that they will bring them forward soon enough.
Here are the 3 stories that I have found so far regarding the accord:
It would be interesting to know if any of the fines that were levied against either Ravalomanana or Ratsiraka will be applied, or if the accord is just wiping the slate completely clean.
What is more interesting though is that all these ex-leaders get to return to Madagascar and participate in elections (I didn’t see anything stating that they couldn’t), so in the next 15 months Madagascar is going to have one hell of an election. Can you imagine if you had to choose between Ravalomanana, Ratsiraka or Rajoelina? That would be insane.
I guess we don’t know for certain if any or all of them will run, but just based on history, it seems to be a position that people would want to fight for. Now it is just a question as to whether or not there will be a great deal of rigging being done by any of the involved parties over the 15 months that have been designated for elections. We already know that Rajoelina has been replacing people everywhere and has been trying to win over the minds of the youth of Madagascar.
But regardless of what new problem might occur in the future with any of the 4 individuals involved, it is just good to know that the illegal government is now on its way to the end and once again we “should” be looking at another democratic government, whomever that might be. I am just glad that something has been signed, and it appears that the crisis will be over soon enough (barring of course any other dispute that might happen over the course of the 15 months).
The Madagascar political crisis of 2009 - Tgoose 